NQ And ES Support Levels For You

Technical Outlook

#BONDS (JUN) 05/03/04: The daily closing price
reversal up is positive. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the
market is in a slightly bullish posture. Near-term resistance for bonds is at
107.20 and then again at 108.02, while swing support hits at 106.13 and below
there at 105.20. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an
indication the short-term trend remains negative. The daily stochastics have
crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The next upside target is 108.02.

T-NOTES(JUN) The upside closing price reversal on
the daily chart is somewhat bullish. The daily stochastics gave a bullish
indicator with a crossover up. The near-term upside objective is at 111.02. It
is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing
number. Near-term resistance for the T-Notes is at 110.26 and then again at
111.02, while swing support hits at 110.05 and below there at 109.23. The
market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day
moving average.

 

STOCK INDICES RECAP

4/30/2004

The stock market continues to chop with a
slightly negative bias. The US economic reports continue to come in just under
persistently strong projections and yet the trade is not seeing buyers attracted
to the fray. Talk of some more accounting violations among US corporations also
surfaced Friday but wasn’t a big issue for traders. With the Asian week holiday
ahead and the US non farm payroll report looming many traders might simply
migrate to the sidelines rather than confront excessive near term volatility in
prices.

Technical Outlook

#S&P500 (JUN) 05/03/04: The market’s close below
the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. Underlying support comes in
at 1097.75 and 1093.63, with overhead resistance at 1112.25 and 1122.63. The
market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day
moving average. Daily stochastics are trending lower, but have declined into
oversold territory. The next downside objective is now at 1093.63.

S&P E-Mini (JUN): Daily stochastics declining
into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The next
downside objective is 1092.81. The market tilt is slightly negative with the
close under the pivot. Near-term resistance for the S&P Mini is at 1112.38 and
then again at 1123.31, while swing support hits at 1097.13 and below there at
1092.81. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the
9-bar moving average.

NASDAQ (JUN) The market’s close below the 9-day
moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The swing
indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st
support number. The market should run into resistance at 1421.25 and above there
at 1452.13 with support at 1379.75 and 1369.13. Short-term indicators on the
defensive. Consider selling an intraday bounce. Momentum studies are declining,
but have fallen to oversold levels. The next downside target is 1369.1.

MINI DOW (JUN) The market’s close below the 9-day
moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The
market should run into resistance at 10260 and above there at 10352 with support
at 10134 and 10100. Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold
levels. The next downside target is 10100. It is a slightly negative indicator
that the close was lower than the pivot swing number.

 

CURRENCY MARKET RECAP

4/30/2004

The Dollar Index gave ground after attempting to
start out higher. Once again the US economic slate disappointed the trade and
the trade seemed to be looking for an excuse to dump the Dollar. However, German
economic numbers were very weak and that probably deflected some of the selling
in the Dollar. Besides a slight technical weakness it would seem that the macro
economic and interest rate differential favors the Dollar.

Technical Outlook

#CURRENCIES 05/03/04: YEN (JUN): The market’s
close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend
remains negative. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower
than the pivot swing number. Swing resistance is targeted at 91.02 and above
there at 91.32, with the yen finding support around 90.45 and below there at
90.18. The close under the 40-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend
could be turning down. Daily stochastics are showing positive momentum from
oversold levels which should reinforce a move higher if near-term resistance is
taken out. The next upside target is 91.32.

EURO (JUN): Momentum studies are trending higher
from mid-range which should support a move higher if resistance levels are
penetrated. The near-term upside objective is at 1.2043. The market is in a
bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number. Swing
support for the Euro comes in at 1.1881, with overhead resistance at 1.2043. The
market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average.
The major trend is down with the cross over back below the 40-day moving
average. The gap down on the day session chart is bearish with more selling
pressure possible today.

 

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP

4/30/2004

The gold market managed a slight bounce that was
probably short covering. However, when one looks at the size of the silver rally
Friday one might think that something besides technical short covering was
driving prices up. Certainly the macro economic uncertainly was a little higher
with the soft US numbers, the Dollar was generally softer after early gains and
it also appeared as if the US military was going to have to fight through the
weekend. Therefore, the flight to quality longs were somewhat justified in their
renewed long interest.

Technical Outlook

#P-METALS 05/03/04: SILVER (JUL): Since the close
was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market’s posture is bullish and
could see more upside follow-through early in the session. Initial support for
silver is at 615.0 and below there at 615.0 with resistance likely at 615.0 and
615.0. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the
short-term trend remains negative. The daily stochastics have crossed over up
which is a bullish indication. The next upside target is 615.0. The gap upmove
on the day session chart is a bullish indicator for trend.

GOLD (JUN): Support for gold today comes in near
382.78, while resistance is pegged at 393.38. Daily momentum studies are on the
rise from low levels and should accelerate a move higher on a push through the
1st swing resistance. The near-term upside objective is at 393.38. It is a
mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The
market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day
moving average.

 

COPPER MARKET RECAP

4/30/2004

The copper market saw some buying support off
talk that labor problems were festering in Peru. After the massive break this
week in copper it is entirely possible that some shorts wanted to cover
positions rather than face the weekly COT report. The market is still trying to
decide whether or not Chinese copper demand is going to fall but with Shanghai
copper stocks showing a significant decline of 18,000 tons on the week it would
seem like current Chinese demand is holding together. We doubt that prices will
run very far unless the world equity markets start to climb as the coming week
is a holiday in Asia and that is sure to crimp physical demand.

 

ENERGY MARKET RECAP

4/30/2004

The energy complex managed to add to recent gains
off the intense speculative interest in the gasoline market. The IEA story about
it being too late to rebuild world energy inventories ahead of the summer demand
window was the main source of the early Bullishness Friday. During the session
the market was undermined by stories that the funds might back away from
energies due to the Chinese developments and due to the recent punishment that
other funds long have been seeing in whipsawing markets. Algeria said that its
exports for May would be 700,000 barrels per day, which is unchanged from the
prior month.

Technical Outlook

#ENERGIES 05/03/04: CRUDE OIL (JUN): It is a
mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number.
Support for crude is keyed on 36.99 and below there at 36.73, with resistance
pegged at 37.77 and 38.29. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close
above the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies are trending lower from high
levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing
support. The next downside objective is now at 36.73.

UNLEADED GAS (JUN): Studies are showing positive
momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The
next upside target is 125.97. With the close higher than the pivot swing number,
the market is in a slightly bullish posture. Resistance today is at 125.97,
while support should be found around 121.57. A new contract high was made on the
rally. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term
trend remains positive. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is
approaching overbought levels.

HEATING OIL (JUN): It is a mildly bullish
indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. Heating oil should
encounter support around 92.42, with resistance is at 97.42. The market’s
short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average. Momentum
studies are trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower
on a break below the 1st swing support. The next downside objective is now at
92.42. The rally brought the market to a new contract high.

 ^next^

CORN MARKET RECAP

4/30/2004

The market garnered support from lighter than
expected notices for first notice day. There were 157 delivery notices this
morning versus expectations of 200-500. The outlook for tightening old crop
ending stocks and a slowdown in the planting progress for the weekend has helped
to turn the psychology a bit more bullish, as have the sharply lower production
forecast for Brazil and the bullish ending stocks forecast for world coarse
grain ending stocks for the 2004/2005 season. Tightness is also developing in
Southeast Asia as China and Thailand could end up being importers after these
countries supplied corn for the region last year. Heavy rains are expected this
weekend in parts of the Midwest, especially south and east. This may provide
some short-term support, but the 6-10 day forecast for the western corn belt
calls for above normal temperatures and below normal to normal precipitation.

Technical Outlook

#CORN (JUL) 05/03/04: Momentum studies are
trending higher from mid-range which should support a move higher if resistance
levels are penetrated. The near-term upside objective is at 331 1/2. The
market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication.
Market resistance comes in at 331 1/2 today, with support at 311 1/2. The
market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average.

 

SOY COMPLEX RECAP

4/30/2004

4/30/2004 The soybean market got a boost today on
news that independent analysts Safras e Mercado had lowered their forecast again
for Brazil’s 2003-04 crop due to poor weather and Asian rust. Their latest
forecast at 49.9 million metric tons represents a revision down from 52.28 in
March and 56.57 prior to that. Other Brazilian agencies reported crop estimates
at 50.1-52.6 recently, but this is the first known forecast below 50 million.
Firm cash prices were also supportive, while the market fended off pressure from
larger than expected delivery notices for first notice day. Traders were looking
for soybean and oil deliveries at zero and for meal at 0-300 contracts with some
estimates up to 500 lots. Actual deliveries came in at 115 contracts for
soybeans, 124 for oil and zero for meal. Basis in the country was up 1-6 cents
in order to try to pry soybeans from producers. A major commercial today
indicated they didn’t see the market running completely out of soybeans.

Technical Outlook

#SOYBEANS (JUL) 05/03/04: With the close higher
than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The
next area of resistance is around 1026 and 1039, while 1st support hits today at
1000 and below there at 987. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average
suggests the short-term trend remains positive. Positive momentum studies in the
neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The next upside target
is 1039.

MEAL (JUL): Momentum studies are trending higher
from mid-range which should support a move higher if resistance levels are
penetrated. The near-term upside objective is at 325.3. First resistance comes
in at 321.0, with support at 311.0. The market’s short-term trend is positive on
a close above the 9-day moving average. The market’s close above the 2nd swing
resistance number is a bullish indication.

BEAN OIL (JUL): The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. Studies are
showing positive momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution
is warranted. The next upside target is 34.68. The swing indicator gave a
moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. The
outside day down and close below the previous day’s low is a negative signal.
The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Daily swing resistance is found at 33.86 and above there at 34.68. Support
should be encountered at 32.71 and 32.38.

 

WHEAT MARKET RECAP

4/30/2004

The market found support from lighter than
deliveries on first notice day today. Traders were looking for 2000-3000
contracts but actual deliveries came in at 905 contracts. A cold weather threat
for the weekend has also helped to trigger some short-covering, but if a freeze
doesn’t develop 9the market wasn’t totally accepting of a frost event), the
market might encounter selling pressures next week, as crop conditions seem to
be improving in the US, Canada and Europe. Crop scouts in Kansas pegged the crop
at 355 million bushels as compared with the groups estimate last year at 364
million bushels. Japan bought 120,000 tons of wheat at their weekly tender
overnight, 60,000 from the US. In addition, Morocco bought 30,000 tons of US
wheat in an optional origin tender. Rains are expected for the winter wheat belt
today. The 6-10 day forecast for the southern winter wheat belt calls for above
normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. Parts of the dry Canadian
Prairies are looking for some rains to help prepare for planting. July wheat so
far today has just held resistance at the 396 level.

Technical Outlook

#WHEAT (JUL) 05/03/04: With the close higher than
the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. Look for
near-term support at 386 and below there at 383 1/2, with resistance levels at
393 1/2 and 398 1/2. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests
the short-term trend remains positive. Daily stochastics are showing positive
momentum from oversold levels which should reinforce a move higher if near-term
resistance is taken out. The next upside target is 398 1/2.

 

LIVE CATTLE RECAP

4/30/2004

Cattle futures closed mixed today with the June
contract down 65, August up 62 and December down 7. The market was pressured
early in the session on rumors that a Texas cow as being tested for BSE (Mad Cow
Disease). These rumors were quickly denied by the Texas Department of
Agriculture and the market recovered somewhat. Slaughter for Friday came in at
126,000 head for Friday and 33,000 for Saturday as compared with trade
expectations at 120,000-138,000 and 15,000-30,000 head respectively. Slaughter
for the week reached 663,000 head as compared with 633,000 last week and 659,000
head last year. At noon, boxed beef cutout values were up 23 cents to $157.75 as
compared with $157.56 last week at this time.

Technical Outlook

#CATTLE (JUN) 05/03/04: Studies are showing
positive momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution is
warranted. The next upside target is 82.50. It is a slightly negative indicator
that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. Support should be
encountered at 79.42 and below there at 78.60. Market resistance is at 81.37 and
then again at 82.50. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests
the short-term trend remains positive.

 

LEAN HOGS RECAP

4/30/2004

Hogs closed sharply higher with the June contract
locked the limit and an estimated 200 contracts left in the June buy pool at the
close. The bullish action came despite some ominous technical action yesterday
when the market traded in an outside day down formation. Today’s close took June
hogs to their highest level since April 15th and leaves 75.00 basis the June
contract as a key psychological resistance level. The CME 2-day Lean Index for
the period ending April 28th was up 57 cents to $69.38 as compared with $64.37
on April 15th. Slaughter came in at 371,000 head for Friday and 12,000 for
Saturday as compared with trade expectations at 376,000-390,000 and
12,000-28,000 head respectively.

Technical Outlook

#HOGS (JUN) 05/03/04: The market’s close above
the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication. Resistance levels comes
in at 74.95 and 75.37 today, while support is around 73.22 and then 71.92. The
market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average.
Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range which should support a move
higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The near-term upside objective is at
75.37.

 

COCOA MARKET RECAP

4/30/2004

The cocoa market finished unchanged but did show
signs of an upside breakout during the session. A slightly weaker Dollar and
ideas that the COT report would show an overly short position seemed to promote
fund short covering. The Press reported that origins were selling into the
market and yet prices managed to stay strong early so that is a partially
impressive development for the bull camp. The market did not some increased
political tensions in the Western Cocoa production areas and that could become a
sustainable issue.

Technical Outlook

COCOA (JUL) 05/03/04 The market has a slightly
positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. Cocoa should run into
resistance at 1426 and above there at 1440 with support at 1401 and 1390.
Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher
price action. The next upside target is 1440.25.

 

COFFEE MARKET RECAP

4/30/2004

July coffee fell 1 cent and barely held above
support at 69 as active fund selling pressured futures. Despite news that
Brazilian and Colombian farmers will be receiving more government aid, the
coffee market continues to fall under the weight of rising supply expectations.
Both Brazil and Vietnam are expecting good size crops. Brazil’s exports for the
first 27 days of April were 1.046 million bags, down from 1.615 million bags
same period in March. Under 69 July coffee has next support at 68.50.

Technical Outlook

COFFEE (JUN) 5/3/04 The close below the 1st swing
support could weigh on the market. The 9-day RSI under 30 indicates the market
is approaching oversold levels. The daily stochastics have crossed over down
which is a bearish indication. The next downside objective is now at 68.00. The
Coffee contract should run into resistance at 69.85 and above there at 70.90
with support at 68.4 and 68.00. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the
close remains below the 9-day moving average.

 

SUGAR MARKET RECAP

4/30/2004

Position adjustments ahead of May sugar’s
expiration pressured the July contract which closed 8 lower Friday, but up 16 on
the week. Sugar traded higher early Friday supported by higher London prices due
to fund buying. Tender news was not enough to take July sugar to a higher close.
Egypt bought 27,000 tons of raw sugar Friday after buying 100,000 tons earlier
in the week. Asian freight rates have pulled back from record levels earlier in
the year as imports from Japan and China has slowed. Imports of raw cane sugar
to the Ukraine fell by 5,300 tons in March to 43,400 tons.

Technical Outlook

#SUGAR (JUL) 05/03/04: The daily closing price
reversal down puts the market on the defensive. The market’s close below the
pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. Swing resistance comes in at
7.25, with support found at 6.73. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a
close above the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies trending lower at
mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The
next downside objective is now at 6.73.

 

COTTON MARKET RECAP

4/30/2004

July cotton closed 0.02 lower on the day at 59.36
and December cotton closed 0.48 higher at 61.73. The session was fairly quiet
compared to yesterday’s wildly swinging session. The new crop contracts are
being buoyed on ideas that the sharply lower prices have encouraged growers to
switch to soybeans, and yesterday’ spike lower suggests a potential bottom has
been put in place. There have been anecdotal reports of higher demand for
soybean seed in the cotton growing regions. The CotLook A Index was unchanged at
69.05, which is down 105 points for the week after being up 65 points last week.

Technical Outlook

#COTTON (JUL) 05/03/04: The market’s close below
the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative.
With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly
bullish posture. Next resistance area comes in at 59.94 and then again at 60.74,
while support is targeted at 58.79 and 58.44. Negative momentum studies in the
neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The next downside target
is 58.44. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat
negative.