October Heating Oil in “TKO”
Each evening we focus on the most interesting aspects for the upcoming trading day. The comments are based on observations of the nightly updates of the Futures and Market Bias pages. They are provided for educational purposes only and are not intended to be direct trading advice. Also, keep in mind that these remarks are made up to 12 hours in advance of the markets opening. Therefore, overnight events may alter the outcome of these observations.
At the time this is being published, the S&P Globex Futures are trading 2.60 points lower and the Bond Market Futures are trading up 2 ticks.
October Heating Oil [HOV9>HOV9], on the Momentum 5 List, has formed a pattern I call a Trend Knock Out (TKO). This is where a strongly trending commodity sells off and takes out (at least) the prior two lows (a). The theory is that this “knocks out†the weak hands and clears the way for the contract to trade higher. Look for a buying opportunity here but wait for follow though to the upside (i.e. take out today’s high) as it closed poorly.
Source: Omega Research.
November Orange Juice [OJX9>OJX9], mentioned last night as a TKO (see archive), formed an inside day today. The contract still looks like it has the potential to resume its strong uptrend. Continue to look for a buying opportunity here
For you breakout players, the September Japanese Yen [JYU9>JYU9], mentioned last night, closed at a new 6 month high today. Continue to look for a buying opportunity here as the currency is in a fast move.
Volatility Watch
December Coffee [KCZ9>KCZ9] has traded sideways on a closing basis for the past week or so. Because historical volatility is based on closing prices only, this action has coffee on the Volatility Explosions — Low 6/100 Readings List. Look for a larger-than-normal move (in either direction) as volatility reverts to its mean.
Best of luck with your trading on Wednesday!
Dave Landry
PS-Reminder: Protective stops on every trade!