Oh, The Euphoria

• March 19, 2001
• Marc Dupee

Stock index futures spent the first half of the session
thrashing on both sides of breakeven, but then were bid up euphorically when
traders realized a highly anticipated 50-basis-point cut was likely less than 24
hours away. Some traders and dealers of short-term government debt forecast the
Fed could even cut short-term rates by 75 basis points. 

Both

Nasdaq 100 futures
(
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S&P futures
(
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handles, respectively.

Dow futures
(
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Debt traders took profits after the three prior sessions
of gains took

T-bonds
(
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(
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highs. Both contracts drifted lower, leaving T-bonds 16/32 lower at 106 1/32 and
10-years down 13/16 at 106 11/32.

In currency trading, most contracts gapped up against the
dollar but slipped from their highs of the session. If the Fed cuts rates by
50 basis points rather than 75 (.75%), this should keep June dollar index futures
(
DXM1 |
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(from the Momentum-5
and
New 10-Day Highs lists) on track for additional upside progress. Dollar
index futures
(
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British pounds
(
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because of the interest rate differential, but also because of the
multi-billions in economic losses forecast from the foot-and-mouth livestock
disease outbreak. Not only are millions of animals forecast to be slaughtered,
industries from tourism to transportation are likely to (and already are being)
negatively impacted. The BPM1, like
Japanese yen
(
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euro FX futures
(
ECM1 |
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Swiss francs
(
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(
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theNew 10-Day Lows List.

Grain contracts May wheat
(
WK1 |
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soybeans
(
SK1 |
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reversal patterns that occur in the same day rather than on the following day as
in the Turtle Soup Plus One signals on the daily Futures
Indicators Page. If the late bounce holds and the grains reaction rally from the
lows continues, soybean oil
(
BOK1 |
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PowerRating), could be an interesting upside
trade out of its Pullback From Highs
setup (which, in fact, closed right below the trigger). Bean oil closed .1200
higher at 16.2300.

Pork contracts, both from the Momentum-5
List, tumbled after early probes higher that left them overbought. April lean hogs 
(
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(
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gapped to a new contract high before closing limit down, down 3.000 at
88.500. 

In softs and fibers, orange
juice
(
OJK1 |
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PowerRating) sets up nicely in a tightly consolidating 1-2-3-4
Pullback From Lows setup,
May cotton
(
CTK1 |
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PowerRating) went out on
its high after Friday’s bottoming tail (implying a strong open tomorrow), and
the head-and-shoulders theme still dominates May cocoa
(
CCK1 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
(New 10-Day Low List
member), which closed below its H&S neckline, down 23 at 1005.