Oil Higher Ahead Of OPEC Meeting

Oil prices are higher ahead of a meeting by OPEC oil ministers that begins tomorrow. Members of the cartel said they plan to leave the current quotas among members unchanged. By all appearances, the result of the regularly scheduled meeting will be to maintain the price “band” that OPEC has established where it maintains oil prices by benchmarking an “OPEC barrel” within a $22 through $ 28 price band. Currently, an OPEC barrel is about $26.

July crude
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jumped higher but is selling off from highs, still up .29 at 28.23.

September bonds
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are selling off following word from Fed chief Greenspan that inflation is under control. Lower inflation telegraphs to traders that the Fed can continue to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy without the threat of inflationary pressures. The July Fed Funds futures
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are pricing in a 98% chance of a 25-basis-point cut by the FOMC’s June meeting.

Greenspan was not the only one broadcasting to the financial world that inflation is not a problem. The head of the European Central Bank, Wim Duisenberg, said he expected inflation would drop below the ECB’s 2% target early next year. Still, European inflation is projected to remain near 3%, which is putting pressure on the euro FX
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to trade near its lowest levels of the year. The ECM1 is on the Implosion-5 List. In Friday night’s Futures Outlook, I pointed out that the euro FX was likely to fill the May 31 gap, which it almost did upon hitting its high of .85200 this morning.

Also from the Implosion-5 List, Swiss francs
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filled their May 31 gap but have continued their descent south and are trading near contract lows.