Perceptions And Emotions
Tech
apathy killed the early rally after
the S&P 500
(
SPX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) had run from 1212 to 2121 by 11:00 a.m. From
there, it traded down into the close at 1208.43. There were some decent early up
moves by the semis, especially
(
KLAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
NVLS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and also the
biotechs, but they couldn’t hold on and faded with the indexes.
There are a few banks that
finished green, along with some selected healthcare stocks such as
(
HCR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
JNJ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). The regional Fed heads didn’t help the rally attempt as they schilled
for Greenspan with more rhetoric on the current state of the economy. The NYSE
volume wasn’t big at 1.1 billion, a volume ratio of 38 and decliners led
advancers by -467.
On a relative basis, the
Nasdaq volume was even lighter. The Generals essentially walked away after that
first early rally and from there it was easy to just scale down on any remaining
buy orders, which forced the sellers to start hitting some bids late in the day.
Only four stocks in the Nasdaq 100
(
NDX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) finished in the top 25% of the
daily range.
From here, as I mentioned
yesterday, I expect a reflex rally up to the breakdown points on the NDX and
SPX. Semis and biotechs will provide some intraday setups because the Generals
are involved and there is still good travel range on both groups. Some of the
travel range stocks like
(
SEBL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
VRTS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
VRSN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) will also have
sharp moves during this reflex rally.
Early this morning, the
S&Ps are up 8 points and the NDX futures +38, so after any contra pullback,
provided the pre-Green opening holds through 9:30 a.m., we will find out very
quickly whether the Generals are playing the long side today. Long entries today
will come from your intraday charts as there are very few daily chart
setups.
Stocks
Today
|
(September
|
||
|
Fair Value
|
Buy
|
Sell
|
|
8.85
|
10.00 |
7.65
|
My primary focus would be
on the semis and biotechs. The semis are
(
QLGC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) which closed at 48.90 right
on its 50-day EMA and at the bottom of its four-week trading range. Below 48, it
would turn you to the short side.
There are many stocks like
this that are on the edge of a reflex rally from oversold conditions but can
quickly give you continuation shorts out of the bottom of their ranges, so they
should be in your daily trading plans.
Other semis to watch:
(
KLAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
NVLS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
AMAT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
NVDA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
AMD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
In the biotechs, look at
(
IDPH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
HGSI |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
PDLI |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
ABGX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
CELG |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
AMGN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). Remember,
you just keep scrolling those on your intraday charts and guaranteed three,
four, five of them will give you good setups today.
Daily chart setups — and
there are very few of them but some did set up:
(
FRX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
THC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
FDC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
C |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) (use the 200-day EMA as a pivot point),
(
FLR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
WM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) (which gave
us a good run yesterday on a wide-range bar — be ready for any continuation).
Four travel range stock to
focus on on your intraday charts with excellent travel range and activity are:
(
VRTS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
VRSN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
BRCD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
SEBL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). They don’t set up on the daily charts,
remember, this is strictly intraday stuff you are looking for.
Have a good trading day.
Monday’s S&P 500 five-minute chart
with 8-, 20-,
60- and 260-period
EMAs
Monday’s NYSE
TICK five-minute chart