• Free Book
  • Store
    • Books
    • Free First Chapters
    • Free Newsletters
  • Recent Articles

TradingMarkets.com

Quantified Stock Market Trading Strategies & Systems

  • Home
  • New Trading Research
  • Education
    • Articles
      • Connors Research
      • ETFs
      • Options
      • Stocks
      • Volatility
    • Trading Lessons
    • Connors Research
    • Glossary
    • Interview Archive
    • Videos
  • Python
  • Quantamentals
    • Quantamentals: The Next Great Forefront of Trading and Investing
    • Quantamentals Resources
  • Courses
  • Store
    • New Book! The Alpha Formula
    • “Buy The Fear, Sell The Greed” – Best Seller!
    • Swing Trading College 2019
    • Trading Books and Guidebooks
    • Street Smarts
    • Online Trading Courses
    • Private Mentoring with Larry Connors
    • Customized Trading Research
    • Amibroker Strategy Add On Modules
You are here: Home / Forex / Commentary / Pick a winner by picking a loser

Pick a winner by picking a loser

July 10, 2006 by John Jagerson

I have seen numerous cop-out statements similar to the one below used by analysts that don’t know they are in the eye of the storm.

With a barren economic calendar this week, there is some question about whether currency traders ought to even show up for work this week. In the early hours of the open this Sunday, I am seeing signs that most traders that wanted a position probably already have one.

I would like you to consider that we are in the calm of a U.S. dollar storm, and we need to think about what is going to kick us out of equilibrium. Lately there has been a lot of mixed news on the dollar, and therefore we have seen a lot of channeling. For a while in May, I thought we would be stuck in this cyclone forever. But if we take last Friday’s news about payrolls and think about its implications, I think we may have a big win this week. Jobs were a disappointment but wages increased. In a way, both of these were somewhat bad news. Higher inflation from higher wages means more potential for an inverted yield curve. Slower job growth can mean an end to interest rate hikes and puts even more pressure on next month’s numbers.

In the end, we have to consider not just what has happened in the past but the probability of something happening in the future. At this point, the probabilities for bad news for the U.S. dollar are piling up. Take a look at the EUR/USD chart below.


Source: Prophet.net

A cup-and-handle continuation pattern provides further technical evidence that the U.S. dollar may struggle into the 1.3000—1.3200 range. The breakout I am looking for could easily happen this week. Look for a break above 1.2850 to take positions. Some minor news about consumer credit on Monday and trade on Wednesday could trigger the rally we need to justify a long position. Just remember, you can make just as much money picking a currency that is struggling as finding one that is soaring.

Pick a winner on Monday by looking for losers!

S. Wade Hansen and John Jagerson are the authors of Profiting With Forex, published by McGraw Hill, and have been featured in Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, BusinessWeek’s Investor Education program and CNBC’s Investor Education program. They also develop Forex, stock and option education courses for INVESTools.com.

Filed Under: Commentary, Recent

Buy The Fear, Sell The Greed

Buy The Fear, Sell The Greed

Swing Trading College

New Book From Larry Connors and Chris Cain, CMT – "The Alpha Formula; High Powered Strategies to Beat The Market With Less Risk"

We’re excited to announce the release of a new investment book written by Larry Connors and Chris Cain, CMT. The book, “The Alpha Formula; High Powered Strategies to Beat The Market With Less Risk “ combines… Hedge fund legend Ray Dalio’s brilliant insight into combining uncorrelated strategies… With new, minimally correlated, quantified, systematic strategies to trade… [Read More]

Buy The Alpha Formula Now

Connors Research Traders Journal (Volume 57): 7 Real-World Reasons Why Short Strategies Should Be Included In Your Portfolio

In our new book, The Alpha Formula – High Powered Strategies to Beat the Market with Less Risk, we show the benefits of including short-strategies in your portfolio. As a reminder, building portfolios should be based on First Principles – otherwise known as truths. These truths are: Markets Go Up Market Go Down Markets Go… [Read More]

Company Info

The Connors Group, Inc.
185 Hudson St., Suite 2500
Jersey City, NJ 07311
www.cg3.com

About Us

About
Careers
Contact Us
Link To Us

Company Resources

Help
Privacy Policy
Return Policy
Terms & Conditions

Properties

TradingMarkets
Connors Research

Connect with TradingMarkets

Contact

info@cg3.com
973-494-7311 ext. 628

Free Book

Short Term Trading Strategies That Work

© Copyright 2020 The Connors Group, Inc.

Copyright © 2023 · News Pro Theme on Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in