Plenty Of Opportunities Tomorrow…Here’s Why
The big news overnight were a
couple of comments with slightly different meanings, quoting the Financial
Times:
Japan and Europe
consider joint move on falling USD. Japan Vice FinMin Watanabe said that Japan
and Europe could take “harmonized action” to curb their currencies’ appreciation
further. The FT says that separately, another senior Japanese finance ministry
official said that Japan and the eurozone authorities had discussed the prospect
of joint market intervention if the yen and euro continued to strengthen against
the dollar. However, in his comments to the press, Watanabe went out of his way
to say that Japan and Europe had not had any concrete discussions on joint
action. FinMin Tanigaki tried to undermine fears of European/Japanese joint
intervention by saying “its not supposed to be understood that we are preparing
for joint intervention”.
This news quickly took out
stops on USD/JPY at 102.50-60 and quickly moved to 102.15. We sold the bounce
to 102.30 but decided to stay with the trade even after bouncing at the next key
support level 101.80. This proved to be a missed opportunity as we were stopped
out early this morning at 102.80. No regrets however, in light of the comments
it was a reasonable assumption to believe that 102.00 was now resistance, not
support. We will wait and see how things pan out today. However, with payroll
data due tomorrow, the market may simply square positions in anticipation.
While there may be some zigs
and zags today, we expect that for the most part it will like chasing jello on a
plate as the payroll data will be front and center. We suspect there will be
plenty of opportunities tomorrow if the number deviates at all from consensus.
Technical Notes:
|
Currency |
Last Update |
Current Bias |
Support & Resistance |
Targets |
Stop Loss |
|
|
EUR/USD |
12/2/04 4:35 AM PDT |
|
1.3400, |
na |
na |
|
|
USD/JPY |
12/2/04 4:35 AM PDT |
down |
103.18, |
|
102.80 |
|
|
GPB/USD |
12/2/04 4:35 AM PDT |
|
1.9400, |
na |
na |
|
|
USD/CHF |
12/2/04 4:35 AM PDT |
|
1.1520, |
1.1635 |
1.1325 |
|
|
AUD/USD |
12/2/04 4:35 AM PDT |
|
.7883 |
.7850 |
.7680 |
|
|
NZD/USD |
12/2/04 4:35 AM PDT |
|
.7260, |
na |
na |
|
|
USD/CAD |
12/2/04 4:35 AM PDT |
|
1.1925, |
na |
na |
|
