President Obama

Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show “Investors Edge” on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s Trendwatch”… a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary’s Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.

I have always said that one of the reasons Fox News blows away all other cable news networks is not just because of content but because of something else. Try turning off the sound and watch side by side Fox and other cable networks. You will instantly see the difference.

Television is both an audio medium but mostly a visual medium. It is obvious that John McCain’s advisors did not let him in on this. I turned off the sound last night as I watched Obama debate McCain. I did not need to hear the same thing over and over again. Wow! I saw one man who smiled, who was relaxed and who looked like if a bomb went off behind him, would have still been relaxed. On the other hand, I saw a man who was fidgety, made weird faces, looked upset and looked angry. CASE CLOSED!

This was the third debate. There was nothing new that was said or going to be said. Both did fine. Both made their points. Both missed opportunities. But when it comes down to the end of the campaign, people already know policy opinion, good or bad. People have already been inundated with ads every hour on the hour. Most people already have made their decision. I believe the rest just want to feel good about their pick…John McCain’s advisors forgot this.

But do let me be clear, Barack Obama, not withstanding a huge surprise, will have won this election because a worsening market and worsening economy. Just chart the recent moves in the market with Obama’s poll numbers…but last night, it was hands down for Obama not for what he said or did not say…but for his demeanor. Very smart. There is not one Obama/Pelosi economic policy I agree with…so I am hoping that their political side comes through and realizes it is better to govern in the middle…and to not penalize success. Keeping fingers crossed…but not hopeful!

Why is Ben Bernanke going to a lunch…doing a speech and taking questions? Isn’t this the dude who has been wrong 100% of the time? Isn’t this the dude that says that only when information comes in will the Fed react? Isn’t this the dude who instead of being proactive, he has been reactive. Please, Mrs. Bernanke, Bernanke’s children, Bernanke’s friends or relatives…please take this dude on an extended vacation…I will pay. And I am not kidding. Anywhere…you want to go to Alaska…done…Egypt…done…cruise the Indian Ocean…done…just go…because you are not helping the cause.

I wrote this in my October 13th report:

“When I went back to the 87 charts… after the 87 break… I found that markets stopped going down… but sat around for a good year building bases and repairing the damage… just something to think about once this wild action calms down. Remember, I look at bearish markets and bearish stocks as injured markets and injured stocks. The worse the injury, the longer it takes to repair. How do stocks repair themselves? They stop going down and rebuild bases – that takes time, sometimes a long time. I would be thrilled if the market just stopped going down.”

My point is simple. Markets do have memory as fear and greed are emotions that occur almost the same way from decade to decade. Anything can happen and will be glad to adjust. But to believe just because markets are already way down they will just turn back up…is folly. There are certain characteristics that must show up before a market is ready to move up. The first one being a follow through day. We have never had a bull move without one…so it is imperative one occurs…and just because one occurs, it does not lead to a new bull move every time. It just puts odds in your favor. And right now, one can come out of nowhere. If one occurs, I will realize that there continues to be no leadership but will be eager to see if any show up. Doubt it…but will give it every chance. Just take your time…and please do not listen to those pundits who for 5000-6000 points have told you not to sell. Do what is best for you. The good news is that if you decided to sell…and markets do turn up, you can always get back in.

I am in hopes that when this credit debacle ebbs, the lower OIL and other COMMODITY prices will be of help. OIL being cut in half is a huge tax cut for the consumer. So why isn’t gas prices falling as much?

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