Psssssst Finale

  • December 29, 2000
  • Marc Dupee

The Nasdaq 100 Index
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year with a last-hour gasp characteristic of declines this year that have humbled the
tech gauge to its worst annual performance ever. The index underlying the Nasdaq
100 futures is finishing down 36% for the year and gyrated as much as 54% from
its highest point in March to its lowest level last week. You could almost hear
the last of the air going out of the once ballooning Internet stocks. The
decline in techs everywhere has wrought serious damage to the NDX’s leading
names. 

Preliminary numbers indicate the following annual results for the most
heavily weighted stocks from the Nasdaq 100
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down 66% off its all-time peak forged last December. Intel
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60% from its all-time peak summitted just four months ago. Cisco
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down 54% from its March all-time high, and Oracle
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53% from its September all-time peak. 

In today’s trading, leading components JDS Uniphase
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Microsoft
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about face following an early probe to the upside. The cascade during the
morning
Pullback From Lows
setup provided good entry below yesterday’s low, both on the way down and on the
bounce that tested that level. The March
Nasdaq 100 futures
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December S&P futures
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after the NDH, closing off 18.20 at 1335.00 and also accelerating below
their Pullback From Lows setup. (Check out Carolyn Boroden’s Futures
Perspectives for an interesting occurrence in the Spooz about “time-and-price squaring.”)
Dow futures
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The focus in the currencies started on the Japanese yen
as it dipped to a new 16-month low after Tokyo stocks fell, but shifted to the
dollar amid deteriorating US share prices. The currencies are filling out the
momentum lists.
March dollar index futures
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Japanese yen
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closed down 1.01 and 109.28, respectively. 
In a sign of economic trouble, Mitsui Construction announced additional
restructuring plans that include layoffs. Japanese unemployment stands just shy
of a modern era high, at 4.8%, unheard of in Japan’s heyday.

More good economic news from Europe helped to cement
the perception that continental economies will outperform the US. France showed
a surprise drop in unemployment, taking the rate below 10%. The
euro FX futures
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List members–the
Swiss francs
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British pound
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rallied with the euro and Swiss futures gaining more than 1%. 

Energy contracts rallied early and closed a shortened session up sharply on the
perception that OPEC will cut output early next year, possibly before their
scheduled meeting at the end of January. The energy market is also eyeing
Venezuela’s new oil minister who was just sworn in yesterday. It is believed
that Alvaro Silva will abide by the cartel’s output quotas, which will keep
prices high. February crude oil
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heating oil
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shot up .0350 to .7903.

Natural gas, the
commodity of the year 2000, blazed above a  New 10-Day High
laid yesterday and out of a flag formation to cap the year with an all-time high
finish. Nat gas was bolstered by a new storm front that is heading to the Northeast
and Midwest as well as low quantities of gas in storage. Higher margin requirements and a three-day holiday
created thinner trading conditions which enhanced the move in the contract.
February nat gas
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Wheat
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trade exasperated by fewer present sellers. Grains have been inching up in
recent days, and a concerted move together would be good for the entire complex.
Wheat closed 7 3/4 at 279 1/2 and corn
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List, closed at a new five-month high, up 1 1/2 at 231 3/4.