Refco Rocks Futures Markets

The biggest news in the futures markets is
being caused by the largest independent US futures brokerage, Refco.

Refco
(
RFX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
announced that its unregulated subsidiary
Refco Capital Markets, does not have enough liquidity to continue operations, as
the company struggles with an accounting scandal (Full
Story
). As a result, Refco imposed a 15-day moratorium on all activities of
Refco Capital Markets, which represents a material portion of the business of
the company, to protect the value of the enterprise.

Refco accounts for more than 12% of the daily trading volume
on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
(
CME |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
and is weighing on CME stock. A
number of banks are also being negatively impacted after being involved in the
floatation of Refco. Among them Goldman Sachs
(
GS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
, CSFB
(
CSR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
and Bank
of America
(
BAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
.

Turning to the markets, a number of economic reports were
released today. Import prices rose by 2.3%, greater than analyst estimates and
fastest monthly advance since October 1990. The trade balance came in slightly
lower than forecast and initial jobless claims rose more than expected.

The US Dollar Index closed slightly higher but treasuries fell
following the reports.

The EIA weekly petroleum status report showed that crude oil
inventories rose last week, while gasoline inventories fell. The Minerals
Management Service reported that 69% of daily oil production and 57% of daily
gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remains shut-in. Energy prices fell across
the board.

TradingMarkets Commodities Watch List

Commodity
(Symbol)
Price Price Change % Change

Energies

Crude Oil (CL) 62.61
-1.00

-1.57
Heating Oil (HO) 203.42
-2.25

-1.09
Unleaded Gas (HU) 175.79
-6.97

-3.81
Natural Gas (NG) 14.00
-0.43

-2.98

Metals

Gold (GC) 473.80
-2.80

-0.59
Silver (SI) 773.50
-10.30

-1.31
Copper (HG) 176.50
-2.85

-1.59

Grains

Corn (C)

203.50
-1.75

-0.85
Wheat (W) 343.50
-4.00

-1.15
Soybeans (S) 588.25
+0.75

+0.13

Softs

Sugar (SB) 11.69
-0.04

-0.34
Coffee (KC) 100.35
-1.10

-1.08
Cocoa (CC) 1369.00
+21.00

+1.56
Frozen Orange Juice (JO) 104.00
+0.60

+0.58
Cotton (CT) 56.18
+0.28

+0.50
Lumber (LB) 283.50
+0.20

+0.07

Livestock

Lean Hogs (LH) 62.52
+0.15

+0.24
Live Cattle (LC) 91.95
+0.75

+0.82


Economic News

Import and Export Prices:

Import Prices, M/M Change – Actual +2.3% Consensus +0.8%

Export Prices,  M/M Change – Actual +0.9%

International Trade:

Trade Balance – Actual -$59.0 Bln Consensus -$59.6 Bln

Jobless Claims:

New Claims – Actual 389 K Consensus 350 K

EIA Petroleum Status Report:

Crude Oil Inventories, W/W Change – Actual +1.0 Mln Barrels

Gasoline Inventories, W/W Change – Actual -2.7 Mln Barrels

Ashton Dorkins

ashtond@tradingmarkets.com