Reformism Koi-Zooms Yen Higher

Ushered in on the campaign that he is a reformist, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s economic advisory panel today recommended reform measures that could work to eliminate systemic economic inefficiencies plaguing Japanese economic reform.


The panel recommended eliminating public-projects spending, capping the health care budget, and lowering subsidies for local governments. Health care spending is currently valued at 8% of GDP and highway construction (public projects) spending is valued at 10% of the annual budget.


The announcement of the recommendations got the political relief rally in the yen
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going again, with the June futures gapping higher to make good on their Momentum-5 List reading.


The yen was also helped by a weaker euro. Traders are selling euro FX futures
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against both the yen and dollar on comments from European Central Bank Chief Duisenberg that were interpreted to mean that the ECB would not intervene against the flagging single-currency unit. Duisenberg said the exchange rate is only a concern to the ECB if it effects inflation and that inflation was not currently a factor.


The dollar index
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is making good on its dual Momentum-5/Pullback From Highs reading and trading at a contract high. The
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is plunging to its lowest level of 2001, down .01220. However, producer prices out from Italy showed inflation at the wholesale level up 4.3% today and up 6% on an annualized basis in the Netherlands. Inflation is seeping into the economy and could continue to do so with the cheapening euro and relatively higher-priced imports.


The correlated Swiss franc
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is trading at a contract low. Both the euro FX and Swiss franc are on the Implosion-5 List.


Bonds are rallying in anticipation that tomorrow’s jobs report will show rising unemployment which would keep the pressure on the Fed to stay on the aggressive in cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy. This view was supported today by initial jobless figures out today that showed first-time claimants rose to their highest level of the month.


July unleaded gasoline futures
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gapped lower and hit a one-month low following yesterday’s industry group American Petroleum Institute’s report of rising supplies of cleaner-burning reformulated supplies. The reformulated grade is the deliverable grade at the New York Merc. July gapped down but is Turtle Souping (same-day reversal) off the May 16 low. The current tail formation today implies the contract will move higher to fill this morning’s gap in coming days.