Semiconductor Report

  • June 23, 2004
  • Gary Kaltbaum

My job is one-fold…to stay just ahead of this
game. I don’t care where the market is going to be at year end…because I
don’t know. Right now, it is a very tough game as the market continues to
shake and bake on a daily basis. I trust nothing. The market is less than 1%
from moving out of this range to the upside where January highs have a
chance to be hit, but also less than 1% from breaking below near-term
support. If yesterday’s action has a say, maybe…just maybe, we go to the
upside. I will just react when it happens.

My one thought from yesterday is on the SEMIS. Since January 16th, I have
been negative on them. Since that day, they have been one of the worst
acting groups in the market. I am not willing to write it in stone just yet
but there is a chance that yesterday, the Semis had
enough on the downside. For this second — and I mean only this second — I
am going to change my stance to NEUTRAL on the Semis. This simply means that
I am not buying…but I think it may be too late to sell also. I am saying
this meekly because we have a lot of events to deal with in the next
week…and then, it’s earnings season. Ain’t that great? If we break back
below yesterday’s lows in the Semis, it would take me right back into the
bear camp. It is that close.

My final comments are the same ones I have been
uttering for the past few months. This is going to remain a very challenging
environment. I would continue to play it close to the vest as the market is
giving up nothing…on both sides. As I said in my last report…give me a
bull, I am happy. Give me a bear, I am happy. Give me a tape that bounces
back and forth with no progress and give me a vacation in Hawaii.

 

Gary Kaltbaum