Semis Earnings
Kevin Haggerty’s audio commentary
will be back at 5:30 a.m. tomorrow. We apologize for any inconvenience.
The S&P 500
(
SPX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) opened above its
closing range and immediately turned south and took out 1346, the bottom of the
closing range. It traded down to the 260-day EMA on the 10:15 a.m. bar for an
intraday low of 1336.74. From there, it managed to get back to 1349.27, that
familiar 1350 level, then faded to close at 1342.55.Â
For today, above 1343.18
clears all of its five-minute chart EMAs, the 8-, 20-, 60- and 260-EMAs. Below
1339.83, and it challenges Friday’s low. The 50-day EMA is 1341.73, so that also
becomes a pivot point today.
The
NDX 100
(
NDX |
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News |
PowerRating) gapped open 2.6% to 2740, and immediately sold down to the
intraday low of 2634 by 10:15 a.m. Like the SPX, it managed to rally back 2708,
but tailed off to close at 2655.68. The upside alert level above all EMAs is
2664.21, and just below that is the 50-day EMA of 2662.51, two converging
inflection points. The first
downside focus for short entry is the closing range low of 2651.Â
The NDX 100 has rallied
31.3% from the 2087 low to Friday’s 2741 high, and today will be the rally’s
13th day. It is also eight days up from the last swingpoint low of 2151. I have
talked enough about pullbacks and retracements at 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 days, the Fib
numbers, but when they occur and you get a setup, it is usually good.
I would anticipate Friday’s
bottom-of-the-range close and weakness to carry over early today. If the index
trades above the 50-day EMA, then reverses into the downside, I would look for
short entry in the
(
QQQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s or related stocks. Your stop would be just above
the 50-day EMA. Downside price targets if the NDX tests the 2087 low are 2492,
2414, 2337, which are all Fib zones.
For the SPX, which has
rallied 8% fro the 1254 low, the zones are 1316, 1304 and 1286. Alert zones are
just that: A level to look for reversal-bar patterns and some indication that
the buying or selling pressure is changing.
|
(March
|
||
|
Fair Value
|
Buy
|
Sell
|
|
10.15
|
 11.45 |
 8.75
|
Pattern
Setups
With both major indexes
closing in the bottom of their ranges, there are not very many good daily chart
setups. If enthusiasm about the next Fed meeting dominates, you know where
Friday’s highs are, in addition to the early upside entry points.
In the Semis, you have
earnings Tuesday for
(
AVNX |
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PowerRating),
(
CUBE |
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PowerRating),
(
CY |
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PowerRating),
(
LSI |
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PowerRating), and
(
QLGC |
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News |
PowerRating),
while
(
TXN |
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News |
PowerRating) and
(
VTSS |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating) report today after the close.
On the long side in the
Chosen Ones:
(
CHKP |
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PowerRating),
(
NEWP |
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News |
PowerRating),
(
CIEN |
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PowerRating),
(
MERQ |
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PowerRating) and
(
SEBL |
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PowerRating)
if it recrosses the 200. SEBL has earnings coming Tuesday after the close. Also
(
AMAT |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating) above Thursday’s high.
In the QQQs and SPYs, you
have the previously mentioned inflection points either long or short. On the
short side:
(
QLGC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
NVDA |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating) can be taken long or short using the
200-day EMA as your pivot point. Also
(
TXCC |
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News |
PowerRating) and
(
IDTI |
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PowerRating) are two Semis
that are extended, and
(
VRSN |
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News |
PowerRating). Those are intraday shorts only looking for
an airpocket.
Have a good trading day.
Â
