Semis Falling On Lehman And SSB Downgrades

Based
on the Salomon Smith Barney and Lehman downgrades, the semiconductor sector has
been under considerable pressure. Lehman analyst Dan Niles said Intel

(
INTC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
, the world’s largest chipmaker, would slash prices by 50%
on its high-end chips. Mr. Niles also said he expects a price war to go into
effect on or before August 26 as INTC attempts to choke the life
out of its chief rival, Advanced Micro Devices
(
AMD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
.

That news hit the semi sector hard, with INTC falling $1.33,
(
PMCS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
slipping $.50,
KLA-Tencor Corp.
(
KLAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
losing $.58 to $58 and
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) falling $1.27 to $17.98. With so many places to
look for downside trading opportunities, I consulted fellow TradingMarkets
commentator Goran Yordanoff to see which setups looked most exciting to the
market guru.

After a brief perusal of his proprietary models, Goran said his price target
was down at $52. Based on his
outlook, we looked at the KLAC August 60 – 55 put spread for $2.50.
If KLAC were to be unchanged at August expiration, we’d only lose $.50, as there is only $.50
of extrinsic (option premium) in that spread. However, a move under $55 means we
double our money at expiration.

A longer-term short play would involve the September 60 puts for $6 and the September 50 puts for $2. In other words, we’d be
looking at the
10-point put bear spread for $4. That would give us downside participation in
KLAC until September expiration with limited risk (just that $4 per
spread).

CALLS





PUTS



Bid

Ask

Stikes

Bid

Ask

8.2

8.6

Aug-50

0.25

0.45

4.1

4.4

Aug-55

1.2

1.45

1.4

1.65

Aug-60

3.5

3.8

9.9

10.3

Sep-50

1.9

2.15

6.5

6.9

Sep-55

3.5

3.8

4

4.3

Sep-60

5.7

6.1

(1010WallStreet.com has licensed
the use of Hamzei Analytics proprietary options analytics)

Options involve risk and
are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a
person must receive a copy of Characteristics
and Risks of Standardized Options
. Copies of this document are available
from your broker or the Chicago Board Options Exchange, 400 S. LaSalle Street,
Chicago, IL 60605.