Sentiment Now Bearish As All Heck
Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show “Investors Edge” on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s Trendwatch”… a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary’s Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.
I just want to note that all the reactions we usually see at near term lows are being put in place. I did not say bear market bottom… and nothing is 100%. First off… here is TIME MAGAZINE!
Secondly, we have a certain someone on Bubblevision now saying to not own stocks for 5 years… that after being bullish all the way down and calling bottoms on every up day. Again, don’t mean to pick on one person but he is the poster child.
Thirdly, end of world talk.
Fourth, local papers, front covers of everything are now in panic mode… passing by the 70s and heading right for the 30s.
Fifth, extreme bearish sentiment numbers – and I mean extreme – VIX, NEW LOWS VS NEW HIGHS, % OF BEARISH VS BULLISH ADVISORS… I can go on and on.
Sixth, major averages about as stretched from their norm as they have ever been… except for the 87 yonking!Â
Seventh, 8 out of the past 13 bearish market lows since 1949 have occurred in October.
Bottom line, we do not see this type of reaction at the tops. It is the reaction AFTER a big drop… after it has already happened.
Just outlining possibilities… and as I have said, looking for a reason to get a little bullish… and with everyone now bearish… what better reason to turn bullish as the crowd has been massively wrong at the most important junctures. Just because everyone is bearish does not give the market license to turn, but from my studies, it is an important ingredient to get a turn… at least in the near term. Hopefully, no one embraces any rally. If it is embraced too quickly, start worrying. I am now hoping to find a follow through day. Keep in mind, we have not even had the first day up, so be patient. I will alert you if this important characteristic shows up. If one does not show up, there will be nothing to do… and just remember, earnings season is now right around the corner and with the numbers out from SAP AG
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PowerRating) and Bank of America
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PowerRating) already, not sure it is going to be a pretty one as I expect a lot of guiding down.Â
Lastly, I make note that the fed did not lower fed funds but rates between banks are effectively down to 1% and below. On top of that, you now see the fed is backing commercial paper. Where do they continue to get this money from?Â
Should be another random and fun day.
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