Short-term Dollar strength persists
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Euro Needs One More Leg Down
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Japanese Yen Comes off Highs
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British Pound Loses 1.8400
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Swiss Franc Nearing Trendline
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Canadian Dollar Testing Resistance
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Australian Dollar Lower?
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New Zealand
EUR/USD — The EUR/USD decline from Friday’s high at 1.2859 appears to have completed 5 minor waves down to 1.2705 to make a short term double bottom with the 7/5 low. The bullish divergence on the hourly at the 1.2705 low gives scope to a continued rally to test the 38.2% fibo of 1.2859-1.2705 at 1.2763 with additional resistance at former intraday support from Sunday at 1.2783. The next big move is likely down in a C wave decline to correct strength to 1.2859 with support at the 61.8% fibo of 1.2481-1.2859 at 1.2626 and the 78.6% fibo at 1.2562.
USD/JPY — The 38.2% fibo of 115.77-113.42 has held as resistance so far but USD/JPY may need to move higher. The rally off of the 113.42 low would be the first of 3 (A-B-C) corrective waves and the rally from 113.89 is the 3rd wave. Waves A and C in a correction are often close to equal, thus we can look for an end to the correction up by adding the price length of wave A to the start of wave C. This calculation is 113.89 + (114.41-113.42) = 114.88, which is also the 61.8% fibo of 115.77-113.42 and the 7/6 low.
GBP/USD — Cable’s hourly chart is choppier than that of the EUR/USD chart as the pair trades in a slight upward sloping channel. The supporting trendline from this channel is at around 1.8380 and offers immediate support. A break lower probes the 50% fibo of 1.8090-1.8539 at 1.8314 and then the confluence of the 61.8% fibo of 1.8090-1.8539 / 6/27 high at 1.8262. With hourly RSI recently rising from below oversold territory, scope remains for additional gains to test resistance within the mentioned channel at the 61.8% fibo of 1.8539-1.8365 at 1.8472 (7/4 high is also at 1.8478). The resisting line from the upward sloping channel comes in at around 1.8560 — which is also reinforced with the 50% fibo of 1.9025-1.8090 at 1.8557.
USD/CHF — USD/CHF has declined off of the 1.2330 high (from tonight) after forming bearish divergence at the high. With the intraday picture choppy, we’ll look at the daily chart. The rise off of the 1.1919 low on 5/15 has held above a supporting trendline. Price is now approaching the trendline, which is at around 1.2225. A break below the trendline could signal the beginning of a the 5th wave decline that would at least test the 1.1919 low. However, scope remains for additional tests of resistance as long as price remains above the supporting trendline.
USD/CAD — USD/CAD is testing the series of daily highs from 1.1232-1.1283. The bias remains bullish as the pair trades within the ascending triangle that began in mid May. A break above the 6/23 high at 1.1283 argues for a test of the 50% fibo of 1.1771-1.0927 at 1.1349. However, bearish divergence with oscillators on the hourly at the current resistance zone does not bode well for bulls. Upside momentum seems to be waning. Former resistance from the 7/7 high at 1.1152 is now support.
AUD/USD — The rally from .7270 to .7530 is in 3 waves and the rally has stalled at the 50% fibo of .7791-.7270 at .7530. On a much smaller scale, the hourly chart shows an impulsive decline from .7530 to .7459 with the rally off of the .7459 low in 3 waves and therefore corrective. Thus, chart structure on both the daily and hourly are bearish and the proximity of the .7530 high yesterday limits upside risk. Initial support would be at a short term trendline near .7465/70 with a break lower exposing the confluence of the 50% fibo of .7270-.7530 / 7/5 low at .7398/.7400. A break above the .7530 high would negate bearish implications from the wave structure.
NZD/USD — Kiwi broke above resistance from a series of daily highs between.6108 and .6120 (6/30 through 7/5) to test .6150, but has since fallen back below former resistance area. With the failed rally attempt, yesterday’s candle formed as a reverse hammer — a bearish reversal pattern. Like the Aussie, current price is close to yesterday’s high of .6154 – which is a great point of reference from which to trade. The confluence of a short term trendline and 38.2% fibo of .5927-.6154 at .6067 is initial support. A break above the .6154 high would suggest that a top has not yet formed and that price is headed towards the 50% fibo of .6428-.5927 at .6175.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) — 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 — bullish
0 > — bearish
> 100 — extremely bullish
-100 > – extremely bearish
RSI(14) — 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 — bullish
50 > — bearish
> 70 — overbought
30 > – oversold
MACD ? – MACD slope (MACD — MACD[1])
> 0 — bullish
0 > – bearish
Mom(8) — 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 — bullish
0 > – bearish
ATR(14) — 14 day
Medium — 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High – > 75th percentile*
Low — 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) — 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 — strong
30 > – weak
*measured against past 3 months