Stocks Rise, but Big Money Isn’t Buying In
Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show “Investors Edge” on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s Trendwatch”… a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary’s Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.
There are two shows I rarely ever miss … Neil Cavuto’s Your World and Meet the Press. The reasons are simple: both hosts have those eyes that show you they know their stuff. Both have those eyes that show they care about their stuff. Both have the passion and intensity of what they cover. Both know how to cut to the chase when they interview and both suffer no fools. Tim Russert passed away a few days ago. I was at a service plaza driving south on the Florida’s turnpike when from afar, I saw a picture of Tim Russert on the tv. Something was screwy because the channel was turned to CNN. As I got closer, I knew something was wrong and then I saw his year of birth and then of his death. I can talk for hours about how good he was but I think his best attribute was his love of family. I urge you to get his book Big Russ and Me and you will understand. I will be reading his other book Wisdom of Our Fathers on my trip to Hawaii this week. This is one man that cannot be replaced.
For me, not much has changed for this spastic market. As a whole, the market had become stretched away and oversold from the norm… so a bounce ensued Thursday and Friday (don’t ask me how the DOW jumped 90 points in the last few minutes Friday). But for a strong day, volume was lighter than the day before… again showing me that the big money crowd is not buying this market feverishly. I pointed this out to you throughout the rally from March to May. I suspect with option’s week and the end of 6-month window dressing, a further bounce is a possibility… but it is important to continue to recognize that some of the things I have been telling you continue. The most important point to make is that the small caps are now outperforming the large caps in stark contrast to last year. I have seen nothing to change that stance.
I also want to continue to emphasize that the NASDAQ/NDX are also showing better relative strength but again, it is very narrow as only a few big leaders like Apple
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Other notes:
One of the groups I have highlighted as bullish for many weeks has been the RAILS. They are now coming under distribution and need to be watched to see how they trade around 50-day moving averages.
STEEL, COAL, FERTILIZERS, OILS, METALS & MINING continue to lead but not much else. I do want to put the UTILITIES on your radar screen as names like Excelon
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Bottom line is that we had better see some heavy volume up days. Light volume up days and higher volume down days is not a good thing… and will only lead to lower prices. The best news I am seeing is that the NEW LOW LIST… while picking up in the short term, is way lower then where it was in March as the market approaches the March lows… a possible positive divergence. In any case, this game is not going to remain easy.
Lastly, a few important BROKERAGE names report this week. I believe Lehman Brothers
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I am heading for Pebble Beach for a couple of rounds of golf at the famed courses and then onto Hawaii for a needed rest. Of course, I am addicted to this game and will continue to report the psychotic moves in this market as they play out… only the reporting will be coming from a beach in Maui.