Take A Look At These Two Sectors

The market bounced on cue. In particular, the Nasdaq/Nasdaq 100 and SOX
bounced off the all-important 200-day average, a place many technicians separate
bull and bear markets. Now what?

How about not much? How about a trading range between recent highs and
lows? What’s the matter with that?  The market can go higher here into
resistance but turned back. I just believe there is a lot of damage to repair
here so maybe not too much upside. BUT…maybe not a lot of downside either.
We’ll let the market decide. Here are some important thoughts.

IF…the Nasdaq/Nasdaq100 and the SOX do indeed break below their respective 200-day
averages, I will go on to say that instead of being in the late innings of the
bull move for those areas, the bull move is over. I don’t believe it happens
any time soon…but soon to me is days.

 

Fewer and fewer stocks continue to carry the day.
This is the definition of a topping process…which can last months. I used to
tell you 7-8 out of 10 stocks were in good technical shape. Make that 5-6.
This just makes life tougher and tougher for breakout players…as your
conviction is not what it was.

 

I am listening to many people saying that they are
expecting a follow-through day off of Thursday’s low. Even if we get one,
there are not many sound bases to buy off of. You will need to have patience
and let things set up. Let’s not jump the gun.

 

Volume patterns still stink. Thursday’s big move
lacked powerful volume. For such a big one day move, volume was suspiciously
light. One of the main reasons for our thoughts turning more and more negative
the past couple of months was the poor volume patterns. Nothing has changed as
of yet.

 

Remain patient here. About the only powerful areas
I am seeing are GAMING, JAPAN...which I have been telling you about and misc.
RETAIL. There are other sectors in good shape but most are showing a real lack
of power.

Gary Kaltbaum