Take This Simple Test…
The NASDAQ penetrated it’s May CLOSING
low on Monday. I have a suggestion. Near-term, I believe some sort of bounce
may ensue. I am only saying that because the NASDAQ has come straight down. I
am only saying that because all my shorter-term sentiment figures are
oversold. I am only saying that because I received several calls on my radio
show yesterday asking whether to short the SEMIS here…AFTER
the recent drop.
low on Monday. I have a suggestion. Near-term, I believe some sort of bounce
may ensue. I am only saying that because the NASDAQ has come straight down. I
am only saying that because all my shorter-term sentiment figures are
oversold. I am only saying that because I received several calls on my radio
show yesterday asking whether to short the SEMIS here…AFTER
the recent drop.
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That said, if the NASDAQ bounces, any bounce will
be just that. The tape remains a mess and odds favor the May lows will
ultimately break. I will know just how weak the NASDAQ is by how strong any
bounce might be.Â
be just that. The tape remains a mess and odds favor the May lows will
ultimately break. I will know just how weak the NASDAQ is by how strong any
bounce might be.Â
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That all said. It is test time. I love putting my
theories to the test. The only way to do that is by putting it out to
you…the public. The last two tests have worked beautifully. The first one
was the front covers of magazines I reported to you back in January. At the
time, magazine covers were entitled, “TECH IS BACK” and “25 TECH STOCKS TO
PLAY NOW.” That was all AFTER the move up. Well, you know what has happened
since.
theories to the test. The only way to do that is by putting it out to
you…the public. The last two tests have worked beautifully. The first one
was the front covers of magazines I reported to you back in January. At the
time, magazine covers were entitled, “TECH IS BACK” and “25 TECH STOCKS TO
PLAY NOW.” That was all AFTER the move up. Well, you know what has happened
since.
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The second test was my insider call on ORACLE
where CEO Larry Ellison was dumping the stock at the lows. Since, ORACLE,
despite the company’s statement that everything was fine, has dropped to new
yearly lows and remains a major TECH laggard. And yes, Mr. Ellison just sold
ANOTHER 5 million shares.
where CEO Larry Ellison was dumping the stock at the lows. Since, ORACLE,
despite the company’s statement that everything was fine, has dropped to new
yearly lows and remains a major TECH laggard. And yes, Mr. Ellison just sold
ANOTHER 5 million shares.
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Time for Test Number 3.
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Have you seen the July 26 cover of “Fortune?”
The cover’s title: “THE CISCO KID RIDES AGAIN.” A picture of cheerleader — I
mean CEO — John Chambers comes with the title. Maybe I am nuts, but I have a
very good memory. Back in May 2000, both Fortune and Worth magazines had
covers either asking whether Chambers was the greatest CEO on earth or very
simply telling you that you need to own the stock. The rest is history as
CISCO fell from $82 to a bear market low of $8. I do not believe in spooks. I
do not believe in ghosts. I do not believe in that dude who says he can speak
to the dead. I do believe in my sentiment indicators when they go to extremes.
Call it the Sports Illustrated jinx. Call it what you want. Let’s watch test
number 3 and see if CISCO stock is about to get in trouble. Just know I have
never seen front covers like this at some sort of low.
The cover’s title: “THE CISCO KID RIDES AGAIN.” A picture of cheerleader — I
mean CEO — John Chambers comes with the title. Maybe I am nuts, but I have a
very good memory. Back in May 2000, both Fortune and Worth magazines had
covers either asking whether Chambers was the greatest CEO on earth or very
simply telling you that you need to own the stock. The rest is history as
CISCO fell from $82 to a bear market low of $8. I do not believe in spooks. I
do not believe in ghosts. I do not believe in that dude who says he can speak
to the dead. I do believe in my sentiment indicators when they go to extremes.
Call it the Sports Illustrated jinx. Call it what you want. Let’s watch test
number 3 and see if CISCO stock is about to get in trouble. Just know I have
never seen front covers like this at some sort of low.
Gary Kaltbaum
P.S. Order my new Interactive CD-ROM today and save $50.Â
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