The big game for this bull cycle is over

Kevin Haggerty is a full-time professional trader who was
head of trading for Fidelity Capital Markets for seven years. Would you like
Kevin to alert you of opportunities in stocks, the SPYs, QQQQs (and
more) for the next day’s trading?
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Erratic is as erratic
was yesterday
with the SPX +0.2% to 1305.33 (1310.45 intraday high),
Dow +0.5% to 11,253 and QQQQ -0.8%, led by the semiconductors with the SMH
-3.3%. Today is Triple Witch option expiration and St. Patrick’s Day to boot,
not to mention the Full Moon this week. It was energy up yesterday, with the OIH
+1.5% and the XLE +1.6%. The Dow diverged because of two below-the-line stocks,
GM |
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, +3.3%, and
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, +2.3%. NYSE volume was 1.65 billion shares, with
the volume ratio 64 and breadth +1116. The 4 MA VR and breadth are short-term
overbought and the SPX has entered a key price and time zone, so any long
position traders–"heads up." There have been many above-the-line (ATL) stocks
that have advanced over the past 5-7 days and are now extended. Also, the
contracted volatility patterns have been resolved and if you are looking for
stocks to position trade but are having trouble, that should tell you something.

The reported economic news is totally distorted
from reality, especially the jobs data, because the Department of Labor can and
does just guesstimate on how many new company jobs were created. That decision
is very likely influenced by how the current political climate is blowing.
Remember, the new Fed guy is the current administration’s choice, although the
bogus decision not to publish the M3 figures (starting this month) was
Greenspan, and he had a Democratic allegiance. With the wind blowing hard in
Iran and Iraq, the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) will probably be called to
action on various occasions of fear (but they started that game (that we know
of) in 1987, which they have admitted–now they think it’s a tool. Enron did it
to a commodity and the Fed does it to the market, so what am I missing here? The
media hypes rising interest rates and the Fed keeps printing money at the same
time while making token interest rate raises on the other side, but the reality
is they are still at the low end on a historical basis. The big "game" for this
current bull cycle is about over and the next excellent position opportunity will
most likely be in 10/06 – 3/07.

Have a good trading day,

Kevin Haggerty