The Day Traders Primary Focus
From 1990 to 1997, Kevin Haggerty served as Senior Vice President for Equity Trading at Fidelity Capital Markets, Boston, a division of Fidelity Investments. He was responsible for all U.S. institutional Listed, OTC and Option trading in addition to all major Exchange Floor Executions. For a free trial to Kevin’s Daily Trading Report, please click here.
The SPX advanced +19.2% in six days from 845 to 1007, and has reversed for a -10.3% decline the last two days. The primary reason for the sharp advance was the rebalancing into month’s end, similar to 1987 when the SPX gained +10.0% in the last four days of October, on about the same 4.0% rebalancing, which I outlined in the previous commentary (11/4).
It proved to be the bottom in 1987, and now the SPX and INDU are locked in a double bottom 4-week range, which will determine the next direction, and whether or not there is another October bottom.
Seven of the fifteen post World War 2 bear markets have ended in October. The 10/10/08 SPX low of 839.80 was 365 calendar days from the 10/11/07 top of 1576, and a -46.7% decline, which makes it the 3rd most severe post WW 2 bear market behind 10/10/02 (-50.5%) and 10/4/74 (-49.9%). The average SPX bear market decline for the same period is -28%
The SPX was -5.1 yesterday without any significant contra move and finished at 904.88 on NYSE volume of 1.5 bill shs, with the Volume Ratio 5 and breadth -1964. This was the same as the previous day when the VR was 6 and breadth was -2012.
Crude oil settled at 60.77 (-6.1%) as the $USD index was +1.3 which sent gold down. The energy stocks have been the accelerator in both directions for the SPX, and that is when we get the most extreme one day moves. This is also why it makes the major indexes, ETFs and energy stocks the primary focus right now for day traders in the Trading Service.
The SPX is below the midpoint of the 4-week trading range, and if the market sells off enough this morning day traders will (should) capitalize on the probable contra moves. The same is true in the energy stocks, especially if they sell off on a break below $60 (crude oil future).
The SPX futures are still up +6.5 points as I finished this at 8:45A.M. EST, but the best outcome for day traders is that they sell off sharply, setting up the 1st hour reversal strategies.
Have a good trading day!
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