The Evidence at Hand
Gary Kaltbaum is an investment adviser with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show “Investors Edge” on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s Trendwatch”… a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary’s Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.
A big…a major league…an over-the-top shout out to all our veterans and all our military. Just endless thanks for all your courage and all your sacrifice in order for all of us to live the way we live. We cannot thank you enough!
I have been asked several thousand times in the past week whether we have seen the bear market low. I usually give a 3 word answer…”NOT A CLUE!” All I can do and have done is use the evidence at hand. This is all I have ever needed to do…and this has kept me in good stead throughout this nauseating bear market. Evidence is slowly coming in…and it is not thrilling.
Forget the news for a moment. It is all bad. It is more important to me to watch how the market is acting while it has carved out a trading range off the lows. So far, I am less than thrilled. For starters…and for me, most importantly: 35 RETAIL stocks are into new low ground…while the market is not. We are not talking about fly-by-nights. Names like Aeropostale, Urban Outfitters, Guess, Bed Bath and Beyond, Ann Taylor and Ethan Allen fill this list.
Citipuke…new closing low…Goldman Sachs…new closing low…Bank of America on the verge…most other financials turning down from their low bases. Microsoft on the verge of breaking lows…same for Nokia…Novellus new lows…Google new closing low.
New lows in Royal Caribbean Cruises, Carnival Cruise, Marriott and Starwood on the verge. This is just a small list. There are already 300 other new lows…and the number is expanding…which should not be happening in a new fledgling bull market.
I am less than thrilled that we have already received distribution days with a doozy coming on Thursday…on top of Wednesday’s ugly. I am less than thrilled that Friday’s up move was on much lighter volume than Thursday’s.
So far, all evidence tells me buyers are not strong enough here…but supply remains. It feels like the market is hanging in this range because sellers got pooped out. If sellers show up again, with an absence of buyers, look out. Until this dynamic changes, I believe caution is warranted. Whether or not the recent lows get taken out will be a story for another day. The story for me is that this market is still not showing me the “oomph” that gets me excited. This could change today, tomorrow, next week or next year. I can only go by the evidence at hand.
The only leadership I am seeing is in a few low volume medical issues which thrills me not. Also, I continue to see good action in the DISCOUNT STORES like Family Dollar, 99 Cent Stores and Dollar Tree…for obvious reasons.
Next up…my report on the bizarro world we are living in as the bad guys continue to run the show. Hint: Did you see who was standing behind our President Elect?
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed herein are those of the writer and may not reflect those of Wunderlich Securities, Inc. or any of its affiliates. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.