The Making of a New Bull Market
Editor’s Note: Is Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) in a world of its own? Or do breakout earnings, revenues and forecast from the company – along with the recent rally in the financials – signal the beginning of a new bull market?
Here’s a look back to a classic series written in the spring of 2010 by Larry Connors, author of the forthcoming 2nd edition of How Markets Really Work: A Quantitative Guide to Stock Market Behavior, that might help you decide for yourself.
–David Penn, Editor-in-chief, TradingMarkets.com
Originally published 5/27/2010.
As I mentioned yesterday, this officially makes the 8th bear market I’ve traded through since coming into to the industry in 1981. Each market had its own reasons for heading into a bear market, but each had common themes when they transitioned into a bull market. Today and Monday I’ll share with you these common themes which hopefully you can apply both to this market and to future bear-to-bull market transitions.
Today we’ll look at 8 common themes and on Monday the why’s behind these 8 common themes.
1. There is no rational economic reason for the early rally.
2. The semi’s lead first.
3. Every bear to bull transition is accompanied by the financials. If the financials don’t rally, there is no bull market.
4. Basic Materials usually lead too. If there is no building, there is no recovery.
5. The market pounces on any good news and shrugs off (ignores) bad news.
6. The market will gap lower and then close higher for the day. It will do this over and over again.
7. The last hour of trading is often accompanied by strong buying. This buying is usually caused by large money on the sidelines combined with panic short covering.
8. The U.S. market leads the other world markets higher. It always has and until proven otherwise, it will again this time.
If some of these things look familiar to you now, it should as this is what the last few weeks have looked like. But until the market breaks above the 200-day, I still define the market as being in a bear market and I’ll trade it that way (it’s the prudent, statistically proven thing to do as we’ve seen over the past 15 months). This bear market will eventually end, though, and as many of you who have been doing this for many years know, there are few things prettier in the business world than a new bull market.
On Monday we’ll discuss each of the eight above in further depth, click here to read Part 2.
Have a great weekend!
This is from Larry Connors’ Daily Battle Plan which he publishes each morning. If you’d like to take a free trial click here, or call 1-888-484-8220 ext 1 to start your free trial today.
Larry Connors is CEO and Founder of TradingMarkets.com and Connors Research.