The Market Has Topped
Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor
with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary
is the author of
The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is
also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show “Investors Edge” on over
50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s
Trendwatch”…a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the
institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary’s Daily Market
Alerts
click here
or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.
So let me get this straight. Alan Greenspan states several weeks back that
housing was bottoming. Last week, he states we may have a recession. Sorry, you
can’t have it both ways. Thinking he caused this recent drop, Greenspan renegs
overnight and now says he said POSSIBILITY of a recession…and not PROBABILITY.
Futures went from DOWN BIG to up on those new comments. Two words Alan. SHUT UP!
SHUT UP! SHUT UP! SHUT UP! SHUT UP! Well, that was ten words…but I mean it.
My next problem is Ben Bernanke. I am tired of hearing from him that everything
is perfect. On the hill, he said:
“Liquidity is not a problem.” Oh yeah. China being down 9% in a day is not a
problem? Our DOW dropping 250 points in seconds is not a problem? Ben…your
eyes were squinting when you answered that question. You also say that
everything is fine…everything is dandy…but that in itself is a problem.
Let’s suppose you realize tomorrow that all your statistics are now saying a
recession is coming. Are you going to be as mouthy telling everyone there are
troubles ahead or are you going to abstain from answering. The problem Ben is
that you have now put yourself in a box. One day this economy will have
issues…and then what are you going to do.
I am not done.
The administration came out and stated that the
drop was an “anomoly.” This is irresponsible talk. Why? What are they going to
say if we have more downside? There are two anomolies. I don’t get it. When the
market goes up, it is normal. When the market goes down, it is an anomoly. I
have news for the Bush administration…markets do go down every now and then
and bear markets do occur. The less you say…the better.
99.9% of pundits on Wall Street said not to worry
and to buy. These pundits never change their stripes. Your job is to pay
attention to no one. Pay all your attention to what the market is saying.
These are all extreme worries. I hate too much
yapping by people that really don’t have a clue. yes…I believe Greenspan and
Bernanke do not have a clue. I believe they are reactive and not proactive and
more importantly, I believe they just get in the way. Hoping for some silence in
the future.
Markets had an anemic bounce yesterday but we are
now on the count. It is the first day of an attempted rally. We shall now be
looking for a follow-through day to tell us maybe…just maybe this was a one
day event. You know where I stand …THE MARKET HAS TOPPED…but will be willing
to adjust as market action dictates. If we continue to bounce anemically, and
then roll over, my voice will be even louder. I suspect we may have a date with
the 200 day moving averages where I am sure the market will put up a major
fight. That is only a few percent underneath here because of how sharp the
recent drop was. At the very least, recognize that most bases in the market have
broken down…and will need repairing before I can even start to get excited.
Should be a fun March. Expect a lot of talking up of the market. Expect a lot of
talk that everything is ok. The market will decide as it is a lot smarter than
all the talk. BERNANKE is not worried about liquidity. KALTBAUM is very worried
about liquidity.
Gary Kaltbaum