The market is fixated on one thing: Interest rates
Rumors of the bull market demise are
once again premature. Forget about things like bond yields, oil prices, gold
prices, rumors out of Japan about backing off from their steady diet of propping
the U.S. debt = economy. “The Market” is fixated on the end of interest rate hikes,
and nothing else. “The Market” is merely a collection of people, and people are
human. Human emotion drives their thought process. It is widely believed that
stock markets will overcome all else and skyrocket straight up, never to look
back once interest rate hikes cease.
Maybe, maybe not. For short-term traders, none
of that really matters.
ES
(+$50 per index point)
S&P 500 futures broke above 1300 early on, and
that was all she wrote from there. Total buy-side bias all the way up… another
15 points of profit range with nothing but buy signals to follow every dip.
Absolutely no valid reasons why every emini trader in the world wasn’t buying
this chart, making money hand over fist in the process.
ER
(+$100 per index point)
Russell 2000 futures were 100% buy-side biased
once they broke above Monday’s session high. After that, it was blue skies and
buy signals all the way. Monstrously profitable potential… something we will
see much more of inside year 2006. Count on it!
ES
(+$50 per index point)
S&P 500 staged a big bounce off key support
(note where Tuesday’s open was) and sailed +20 points higher from there. Nice to
see normal range sessions returning once again… and we will see some 30pt or
greater range sessions this year as well.
Right back into the sideways congestion range:
needs to take out recent highs on strong volume with emphasis to negate the
weeks’ long consolidation.
ER
(+$100 per index point)
Small caps went vertical, right to recent highs
that capped Tuesday’s emotional ascent. How this potential double-top is dealt
with will go a long ways toward resolving the next sustained swing move to come.
Summation
Tuesday’s session was simple but very difficult. The simple part came from any
viable intraday method either giving predominantly or solely long signals from
bell to bell. That’s clear & simple. Any so-called trade method that gave more
sell signals than buy signals is total junk, pure rubbish and should be
discarded before the opening bell today. Yesterday’s 20pt ES range will be
matched and eclipsed many times within this calendar year. Traders who rely on
failed methods that only perform in sideways, low range sessions will face a
world of pain in the weeks and months ahead… until their trading capital runs
out. Those traders are known as “liquidity” for the market itself.
The difficult part is adhering to a winning
method that gave buy signal after buy signal. Emini traders are conditioned to
short rising markets and buy falling markets. For sure, the majority of emini
traders fought that powerful trend move yesterday in fiscal vain. It takes
awhile to deprogram oneself from the failed logic of trying to time tops and
just go with the market flow.
Yesterday the market flowed north like a river,
and for those who traded correctly it was a bountiful ride. There will be many,
many, many more days this year just like that… prudent traders will be
prepared for the easy wealth they offer!
Trade To Win
Austin P
(Online video clip tutorials… open access)
Austin Passamonte is a full-time professional trader who specializes in E-mini stock index futures, equity
options and commodity markets. Mr. Passamonte’s trading approach uses proprietary chart patterns found on an
intraday basis. Austin trades privately in the Finger Lakes region of New York.