The Market Will Decide When a Low is in
Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show “Investors Edge” on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s Trendwatch”…a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary’s Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.
Especially in this Thanksgiving week…think about doing something for someone you need absolutely nothing from!
I wasn’t going to write again this week but things I am seeing have forced my hand. You see…it is in the bear phases that chicanery is at its highest. It is in the bear phases that certain words are used too often. I do not need to rehash today what we have seen in the financials recently. I dont even need to write about the sham buyouts by the private equity morons…who are now cancelling most of the deals.
I do want to talk about the analysts. For example:
When you are an analyst and you watch your stock drop from $750 to almost $600…and you can’t raise your rating because the rating can’t go any higher…what do you do? Yup…just raise your phantom target price as one analyst did today on Google
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I do want to talk about companies that are missing their earnings estimates. What do you do? JUST ANNOUNCE A LARGE BUYBACK. Target
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The best of the best don’t get it. When Bank of America
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A dude from the NAHB was out yesterday saying housing could or should or would bottom in 08 echoing what Bernanke is saying. I have news for you. Any of you who want to mimic Bernanke’s opinion? I cannot even fill this line with a joke because Bernanke’s opinion on anything at this point has no credibility. In fact, the day he starts rooting for the Patriots is the day they lose their first game.
CAPITULATION…CAPITULATION…CAPITULATION…CAPITULATION…CAPITULATION!
I am already hearing this word more than I am hearing about Britney Spears life. May I be clear. CAPITULATION in a downtrending market does not occur just one month off a high. The top for most indices was October 11. Capitulation occurs after months of nauseating action…when EVERYONE gives up. Please be careful about listening to this word.
The dividend is now 12%…you have to buy it. Of course, that is Washington Mutual
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Of course, I can now start talking about ignoring the yappers using statements and words like “overdone…overreaction…throwing the baby out with the bathwater…bottom…bottom…
bottom…bottom…bottom…bottom…bottom.
The BOTTOM line: The market will decide when a low is in. My job will be to see the set up and the confirmation that the worst is over. I beg you to wait for that confirmation. Just remember last week’s 300 point move and the bottom calls that came out that day.
It is normal for the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving to have an upward bias…especially after a nauseating Monday…and especially after the recent drop. I beg of you again to look for a confirming follow through day before getting too bullish. And that would only give the market a chance to come out of this ugly.