The Super Bowl Stock Market Indicator: Will It Be Accurate This Year?

The Super Bowl stock
market indicator
states that if a team from the old American Football
League (now the AFC) wins the game, the market is headed South. If a team from
the old National Football League (now the NFC) wins, the market should rally.

There was a 4-year period in which the indicator
was flat out wrong–1998-2001. In 1998 and 1999, the Broncos (AFC) win suggested
a lower market. The 2000 St. Louis Rams (NFC) win predicted an up-market as did
the 2001 Baltimore Ravens’ win. (The Ravens are counted as an NFC team because
they were once the Cleveland Browns, NFL).       

In 2002, the Pats (AFC) win correctly predicted
that year’s downturn (the Dow fell over 16%.)

2003 was pretty confusing because Tampa Bay was
an expansion team and therefore can’t be traced to an old AFL or NFL team. In
2004 we had a similar problem, as the Panthers were also an expansion team.

There’s a problem with the Super
Bowl indicator, which is that because of expansion and franchises moving, fewer
Super Bowl games pit former AFL teams against old-line NFL teams.

So what does this mean for Sunday’s game? If the
Pats (old AFL) win, the market is headed
lower. If the Eagles
(old NFL) win, the market rallies. Or so the theory goes. Past performance is
not indicative of future results, etc., and anything else our TradingMarkets
corporate counsel would want me to say.

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Big Cap
Earnings Announcements for the Week of

February 7th













































Company

Symbol

Date
ABN
Amro Holdings
ABN Monday, Jan 31
Activision ATVI Monday, Jan 31
Biogen Idec BIIB Monday, Jan 31
Clorox CLX Monday, Feb 7
Hasbro HAS Monday, Feb 7
Humana HUM Monday, Feb 7
Mercury General MCY Monday, Feb 7
Rent A Center RAC Monday, Feb 7
SINA SINA Monday, Feb 7
Wellpoint WLP Monday, Feb 7
Arch Coal ACI Tuesday, Feb 8
Benchmark
Electronics
BHE Tuesday, Feb 8
C.H. Robinson
Worldwide
CHRW Tuesday, Feb 8
Cisco Systems CSCO Tuesday, Feb 8
Cyberronics CYBX Tuesday, Feb 8
Health Net HNT Tuesday, Feb 8
Level 3
Communications
LVLT Tuesday, Feb 8
Taser
International
TASR Tuesday, Feb 8
UTStarcom UTSI Tuesday, Feb 8
Adolph Coors RKY Wednesday, Feb 9
Applebee’s
International
APPB Wednesday, Feb 9
Argosy Gaming AGY Wednesday, Feb 9
Boyd Gaming BYD Wednesday, Feb 9
Garmin GRMN Wednesday, Feb 9
LifePoint
Hospitals
LPNT Wednesday, Feb 9
Lions Gate
Entertainment
LGF Wednesday, Feb 9
MetLife MET Wednesday, Feb 9
RARE Hospitality RARE Wednesday, Feb 9
Stericycle SRCL Wednesday, Feb 9
WebEx
Communications
WEBX Wednesday, Feb 9
Accredited Home
Lenders
LEND Thursday, Feb 10
Aetna AET Thursday, Feb 10
Analog Devices ADI Thursday, Feb 10
CenterPoint
Energy
CNP Thursday, Feb 10
Coinstar CSTR Thursday, Feb 10
Dell DELL Thursday, Feb 10
GlaxoSmithKline GSK Thursday, Feb 10
Loews Corp. LTR Thursday, Feb 10
Novatel Wireless NVTL Thursday, Feb 10
Sharper Image SHRP Thursday, Feb 10
Waste Management WMI Thursday, Feb 10
XM Satellite
Radio
XMSR Thursday, Feb 10
Veco Instruments VECO Friday, Feb 11

Scheduled Stock Splits for the Week of
February 7th


Company

Symbol

Ratio

Payable

Ex-Date
Tarragon Realty Investors TARR 3-2 Feb 10 Feb 11
Bio-Logic Systems BLSC 3-2 Feb 11 Feb 14

Need more splits information? Click
here.

Upcoming Economic Events for the Week of
February 7th

Date ET Release For Consensus Prior

Feb 7 3:00 pm Consumer Credit Dec. $6.8B -$8.7B
Jan 31 10:00
am
Wholesale Inventories Dec. 0.9% 1.1%
Jan 31 8:30 am Trade Balance Dec. $57.3B -$60.3
Jan 31 8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims 02/05 NA 316K
Feb 1 2:00 pm Treasury Budget Jan. $5.1B -$1.4B

Brice


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