The Threat Of A Weak Dollar, Plus, Why DNA Wants To Split

March 12, 2004
Brice Wightman

The
market displayed a healthy advance decline ratio today, with stocks
closing higher for the first time in four days. While volatility has died down,
this rally still lacks volume to confirm the turnaround although market
internals are still bullish. Gold pulled back today. Hotels
regained ground lost yesterday, and air carriers rebounded strongly. The
weaker dollar now appears to have a greater impact on the travel industry
than terrorism. Spanish police are not yet ready to attribute responsibility for
the Madrid terrorist attack and are pursuing all credible leads to catch the
attackers that left 200 dead and 1400 injured. New York City is implementing new
security measures with bomb-sniffing dogs in its subway system.

At its annual meeting, the
world’s #2 biotech company Genentech
(
DNA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) announced 20% projected
average growth from 2006-2010. The company aims to have the highest US oncology
sales by 2010, and is testing up to 10 different new drugs. DNA requested
approval for a 2-for-1 stock split.

According to an International
Energy Agency report, Crude Oil is expected to strengthen due to a
booming Chinese economy. Rumors of stockpile of strategic oil reserves has
pushed Airlines stocks higher with Transports in a modest two-day rally. The
Michigan sentiment number fell to 94.1 in March from 954.4 in February over
joblessness in the recovering US economy.

Ameritrade’s
(
AMTD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
trading volume declined 22% for the month of February from January and they
raised bottom of the projected EPS range for the second quarter and full year by
3 cents.

Next Tuesday, the Fed is
meeting to discuss economic policies.

Dow	+111.70	10240.08
S&P 500	+13.82	1120.60
Nasdaq	+40.82	1984.71

Economic news
releases today included business inventories that rose a mere 0.1%, a current
account that narrowed to -$127.5 billion and the Michigan sentiment number that
fell to 94.1.

10-year Notes are +65 at
117 160

Dollar is +0.93 at 89.42

Gold is -3.70 at 397.30

Crude Oil is -0.82 at
35.96

Euro is +0.85 at 123.19

Volume is 1,387,000,000
on the NYSE, and 1,685,000,000 on the Nasdaq.

Market breadth is positive.

NYSE	Issues
Advancing	2027	Up Vol 545
Declining	1067	Down Vol 148
Ratio	1.90	3.68
Nasdaq
Advancing	2063	Up Vol 703
Declining	891	Dow Vol 151
Ratio	2.21	4.65

Top Dow stocks are:

Stocks in the news:

Cisco
(
CSCO |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) will
acquire Twingo Systems for $5 million in cash, a provider of desktop security
solutions for Secure Socket Layer.

According to
The Washington Post, the US government has
decided to order 75 million doses of the experimental anthrax vaccine at a cost
of over R700 million. Vaxgen
(
VXGN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and Avecia previously won orders
to stockpile 2 million doses and are expected be involved once again.

Aetna
(
AET |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) raised
its 2004 profit estimates, expecting to earn at least $1.68 a share the next
quarter with full year earnings at $6.60 at share on increasing membership and
lower costs.

Titan
(
TTN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
said it would delay its shareholder vote over the pending merger with Lockheed
Martin.

bricew@tradingmarkets.com

The Threat Of A Weak Dollar, Plus, Why DNA Wants To Split

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