These are not bull market charts
Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with
over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary
is the author of
>The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally
syndicated radio show “Investors Edge” on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also
editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s Trendwatch”…a weekly and monthly
technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you
would like a free trial to Gary’s Daily Market Alerts
If you ever want to teach your kids
about greatness, just have them look at Tiger Woods’ eyes. Have them
learn about his work ethic. Have them learn about his desire,tenacity and
persistance…and they will have a great start in life.
Did you watch some of the Little League World Series this
weekend? I think a couple of their pitchers pitched for the Red Sox against the
Yankees.
I don’t have too much to say today. The action has been
impressive since last Tuesday’s suspect follow-through day…but do believe
things are now getting very overbought.
I say this just because of how far and how fast the move has
been. It would be quite normal now to see a pullback/consolidation just based on
this. There are a few other things to note.
The average weekly NYSE volume was the lowest in 5 months. I
do not consider holiday weeks in this equation. I also noticed declining volume
every day last week. Declining volume into a rally of this magnitude in a bear
phase is a wake up call.
Adding to that is the fact that the NYSE new highs peaked at
139 on Wed. and declined the last two days to 115, and 82 as the market moved
up, which is another subtle negative divergence. But these are just subtle
hints.
I urge you to keep your feet on the ground and look at the
charts of the NASDAQ,NDX, SMALL-CAP 600,MID-CAP 400, SOX, TRANSPORTS, RETAIL and
HOUSING. Let me be clear about something. These are NOT BULL MARKET charts…and
they continue to lag badly. I am saying this knowing about last week’s action. I
know the DOW and S&P are back within a smidge of their highs but we told you
from day 1 of the top that they would outperform at this time.
If leadership shows up…if volume patterns turn better…if
stocks break out…I will be all for it. I have no bias to the market. If the
DOW wants to go to 40,000 on the DOW in 3 years like Harry Dent says it will…I
am all for it. I am just very suspect of what I have seen so far…and are still
not thrilled that so many areas are still showing bear market charts.
Hoping for better days ahead! I would just like to see more
and better evidence.
Gary Kaltbaum