This Indicator Works. Well, Sometimes It Works…

Can We Call This An “Indicator”?

It’s officially summer. June 21 marks the day every year; it’s
called the Summer Solstice. After Thursday’s 168-point selloff and today’s
123-point drop (and after we interviewed Arch Crawford a few weeks back), I
thought I might look at the effects of the solstice–if any–on the market. Here
are the charts:

2004 was interesting. Not on the money, but a trend change did
occur a few days later.

                                           
2004

 

2003 wasn’t much help. The solstice actually happened right in
the middle of that drop.

                                          
2003

I found no correlation at all in 2002, so we’ll skip that
chart. In 2001, there was a small pullback afterwards. Not much there, really…

                                           
2001

In 2000, again, we saw a small pullback. Not really that
significant.

                                             
2000

So what do we do with this information? I’ve only shown you
four examples, so we can’t really call this a statistically significant study.
(And, for that matter, I didn’t compile the stats–I just showed a few charts.)
At the very least, it’s entertainment–maybe cocktail party material (especially
here in California!). It may be worth keeping this date in mind each year, just
as a heads up for a possible change in trend. I’d look for some real, solid
technical indicators before I’d be acting, though.

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TradersWire

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Big Cap
Earnings Announcements for the Week of June 27th



















Company

Symbol

Date
CKE Restaurants CKR Monday, June 27
Nike NKE Monday, June 27
Paychex PAYX Monday, June 27
Walgreen WAG Monday, June 27
Apollo Group APOL Tuesday, June 28
Emmis
Communications
EMMS Tuesday, June 28
3Com COMS Wednesday, June
29
General Mills GIS Wednesday, June 29
Lions Gate
Entertainment
LGF Wednesday, June 29
Monsanto MON Wednesday, June 29
Oracle ORCL Wednesday, June 29
Research In
Motion
RIMM Wednesday, June 29
American
Greetings
AM Thursday, June
30
Biomet BMET Thursday, June 30
ConAgra Foods CAG Thursday, June 30
Constellation
Brands
STZ Thursday, June 30
Red Hat RHAT Thursday, June 30

Scheduled Stock Splits for the Week of
June 27th


Company

Symbol

Ratio

Payable

Ex-Date
Hampshire Group, Limted HAMP 2-1 June 28 Jun 29
First Bancorp FBP 2-1 June 28 Jun 29
Logitech Intl SA LOGI 2-1 June 29 Jun 30
South Jersey Industries SJI 2-1 June 30 July 1
Nordstorm JWN 2-1 June 30 July 1
Quicksilver Resources KWK 3-2 June 30 July 1
Capital City Bank CCBG 5-4 July 1 July 5
Florida Rock FRK 3-2 July 1 July 5
Flowers Foods FLO 3-2 July 1 July 5

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here.

Upcoming Economic Events for the Week of
June
27th

Date ET Release For Consensus Prior

June 28 10:00
am
Consumer Confidence June 104.3 102.2
June 29 8:30
am
GDP (Final) Q1 3.7% 3.5%
June 29 8:30
am
Chain Deflator (Final) Q1 3.2% 3.2%
June 30 8:30
am
Initial Jobless Calims 6/25 NA 314K
June 30 8:30
am
Personal Income May 0.3% 0.7%
June 30 8:30
am
Personal Spending May 0.0% 0.6%
June 30 10:00 am Chicago PMI June 53.7 54.1
June 30 10:00 am Help Wanted Index May 40 39
June 30 2:15 pm FOMC Policy Meeting      
Jul 1 12:00 pm Auto Sales June 5.5M 5.3M
Jul 1 12:00 pm Truck Sales June 7.9M 7.8M
Jul 1 9:45 am Michigan Sentiment (Revised) June 94.8 94.8
Jul 1 10:00 am Construction Spending May 0.5% 0.5%
Jul 1 10:00 am ISM Index June 51.5 51.4

Have a great weekend!

Brice


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