This Indicator Works. Well, Sometimes It Works…
Can We Call This An “Indicator”?
It’s officially summer. June 21 marks the day every year; it’s
called the Summer Solstice. After Thursday’s 168-point selloff and today’s
123-point drop (and after we interviewed Arch Crawford a few weeks back), I
thought I might look at the effects of the solstice–if any–on the market. Here
are the charts:
2004 was interesting. Not on the money, but a trend change did
occur a few days later.
                                          Â
2004
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2003 wasn’t much help. The solstice actually happened right in
the middle of that drop.
                                         Â
2003
I found no correlation at all in 2002, so we’ll skip that
chart. In 2001, there was a small pullback afterwards. Not much there, really…
                                          Â
2001
In 2000, again, we saw a small pullback. Not really that
significant.
                                            Â
2000
So what do we do with this information? I’ve only shown you
four examples, so we can’t really call this a statistically significant study.
(And, for that matter, I didn’t compile the stats–I just showed a few charts.)
At the very least, it’s entertainment–maybe cocktail party material (especially
here in California!). It may be worth keeping this date in mind each year, just
as a heads up for a possible change in trend. I’d look for some real, solid
technical indicators before I’d be acting, though.
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The New, Improved
TradersWire
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swing by next week–you’ll be pleasantly surprised. We’ve made a lot of changes,
including precise buy and sell alerts on stocks and E-minis and Mini-sized Dow
contracts, expanded education and trading tips. And as always, there are some
good traders in the chat room. I’m not ashamed to say that I’ve learned a lot
from some of these traders through the years, and I’m willing to bet you could
learn something, too. So come on by, we’ll
see you in
TradersWire on Monday!
Big Cap
Earnings Announcements for the Week of June 27th
Company |
Symbol |
Date |
| CKE Restaurants | CKR | Monday, June 27 |
| Nike | NKE | Monday, June 27 |
| Paychex | PAYX | Monday, June 27 |
| Walgreen | WAG | Monday, June 27 |
| Apollo Group | APOL | Tuesday, June 28 |
| Emmis Communications |
EMMS | Tuesday, June 28 |
| 3Com | COMS | Wednesday, June 29 |
| General Mills | GIS | Wednesday, June 29 |
| Lions Gate Entertainment |
LGF | Wednesday, June 29 |
| Monsanto | MON | Wednesday, June 29 |
| Oracle | ORCL | Wednesday, June 29 |
| Research In Motion |
RIMM | Wednesday, June 29 |
| American Greetings |
AM | Thursday, June 30 |
| Biomet | BMET | Thursday, June 30 |
| ConAgra Foods | CAG | Thursday, June 30 |
| Constellation Brands |
STZ | Thursday, June 30 |
| Red Hat | RHAT | Thursday, June 30 |
Scheduled Stock Splits for the Week of
June 27th
Company |
Symbol |
Ratio |
Payable |
Ex-Date |
| Hampshire Group, Limted | HAMP | 2-1 | June 28 | Jun 29 |
| First Bancorp | FBP | 2-1 | June 28 | Jun 29 |
| Logitech Intl SA | LOGI | 2-1 | June 29 | Jun 30 |
| South Jersey Industries | SJI | 2-1 | June 30 | July 1 |
| Nordstorm | JWN | 2-1 | June 30 | July 1 |
| Quicksilver Resources | KWK | 3-2 | June 30 | July 1 |
| Capital City Bank | CCBG | 5-4 | July 1 | July 5 |
| Florida Rock | FRK | 3-2 | July 1 | July 5 |
| Flowers Foods | FLO | 3-2 | July 1 | July 5 |
Need more splits information? Click
here.
Upcoming Economic Events for the Week of
June
27th
| Date | ET | Release | For | Consensus | Prior |
| June 28 | 10:00 am |
Consumer Confidence | June | 104.3 | 102.2 |
| June 29 | 8:30 am |
GDP (Final) | Q1 | 3.7% | 3.5% |
| June 29 | 8:30 am |
Chain Deflator (Final) | Q1 | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| June 30 | 8:30 am |
Initial Jobless Calims | 6/25 | NA | 314K |
| June 30 | 8:30 am |
Personal Income | May | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| June 30 | 8:30 am |
Personal Spending | May | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| June 30 | 10:00 am | Chicago PMI | June | 53.7 | 54.1 |
| June 30 | 10:00 am | Help Wanted Index | May | 40 | 39 |
| June 30 | 2:15 pm | FOMC Policy Meeting | Â | Â | Â |
| Jul 1 | 12:00 pm | Auto Sales | June | 5.5M | 5.3M |
| Jul 1 | 12:00 pm | Truck Sales | June | 7.9M | 7.8M |
| Jul 1 | 9:45 am | Michigan Sentiment (Revised) | June | 94.8 | 94.8 |
| Jul 1 | 10:00 am | Construction Spending | May | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Jul 1 | 10:00 am | ISM Index | June | 51.5 | 51.4 |
Have a great weekend!
Brice
P.S. Stay in touch with the latest happenings at TradingMarkets.com.
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