This Is What I’m Seeing Longer Term

  • January 9, 2003
  • Derrick Hobbs

What
if I were to say in the next couple of months:

  • The S&P
    will be up 13% from current levels

  • Semiconductors
    will be up 36% from current levels

  • The Dow
    Jones will be up 14% from current levels

  • The Nasdaq
    100 will be up 31% from current levels

What if I went on to
say…

By year end we will
lose all of those gains and then some?

That would be one
heck of a ride wouldn’t it? You know what…when I look at the weekly charts RIGHT
NOW, it sure looks like a possibility. I say “right now” because the
only thing that is constant is change. With that said…

Walk this way
please:

  1. Each of the weekly
    charts below is working on an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.

  2. We are sitting on
    the 200 day simple moving average

  3. Focus weekly
    Fibonacci resistance is above current levels by the amount I describe for
    the potential upside above.

  4. There is a potential
    AB = CD two step pattern forming into these resistance zones.

The 200 day SMA
combined with the Inverse H&S pattern could very well create the buying
momentum to the upside to carry us up to focus resistance zones listed in each
of the charts below. However, once we get up to those zones there will be oodles
and oodles of Fibonacci short setups in the indices and sectors. In my opinion,
and of course, this entire article is “opinion,” that is the major short
sale opportunity of the year. Not at current levels, because based on these
weekly charts there is a good chance for higher prices based on what I’ve said
above.

You know what…I
could be completely wrong on my directional opinion. Fortunately in the near
term I will trade what the market gives me…but I’ll tell you this
much…These weekly charts are in the back of my mind right now. And note that
these charts and comments are not intended to be trading recommendations…I’m
just dreaming…A Mid-Winter’s Night Dream if you will.

If you read my
column you know I have never done this, but I think it’s healthy to release
opinions…because I sure can’t trade with an opinion or I’ll get my head
handed to me. So, I’m printing this article, placing it in a sealed envelope,
and putting it in my “lucky file” and setting a reminder in my computer on
12-31-03 to review it. I’ll either laugh or cry.



Good night!

Derrik

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