This tool can help tell you the Dollar’s next move
US Dollar Index:
The NYBOT traded contract saw the commercials increase their
short positions against the dollar as rally stalled above the 92.00 handle.
Volume fell as index failed to gain further momentum, with the On Balance Volume
indicator continuing to signal to an increasing upside volume that is adding to
the positive long term outlook regarding the Dollar Index.
Speculative positions increased their net long exposure to
29,228 net long contracts, while commercials added to their net short position
with 30,721net short contracts. Open interest continued to grow with 2,965 new
contracts entering the market to 41, 712 contracts outstanding.
EUR:
Euro speculative positions remained net short as speculative
short positioning grew to 13,222 contracts, while overall open interest rose
sharply by another 15,387 contracts from the previous week to 175,265 contracts
outstanding as single currency once again headed above the 1.1700 figure in an
attempt to capture the psychologically important 1.2000 handle. Commercial
trader positions remained net long as their positioning grew to 20,672 contracts
as Euro once again rallied toward the 1.2000 level.
GBP:
British pound traders added to their short speculative
positions as the pair fell below the 1.7273, a 2005 Low, with speculative
trader’s increasing their net short positions by 23,817 contracts. Commercial
traders increased their net long exposure to the sterling with commercial net
longs growing to 30,673 contracts. Open interest rose, with 4,051 new contracts
entering the market, brining total to 84,441 contracts outstanding.
CHF:
Swiss Franc speculative traders increased their net short
positions to 45,034 contracts as pair stalled above the 1.3200 handle.
Commercials added to their net long positions with overall net longs rising
sharply to 63,988 contracts, thus adding to an outlook that the pair might
retrace toward the 1.2700 handle. Open interest rose by another 13,693 contracts
to 84,753 contracts outstanding.
JPY:
Japanese Yen speculative positions remained net short as pair
failed to brake above the psychologically important 120.00 handle, with
speculative traders adding 2,603 contracts, bringing total net speculative
shorts to 67,231 contracts. Commercials increased their net long positions to
75,643 net long commercial contracts outstanding. Open interest rose by 5,422
contracts to 203,137 contracts outstanding.
CAD:
Canadian dollar speculative positions remained net long, with
speculators reducing their net long positions by additional 6,171 contracts,
brining the total to 20,169 net speculative long contracts remaining in the
market. Commercials increased their net short positions to 33,946 net short
contracts. Open interest fell by 1,801 contracts to 105,550 total contracts
outstanding.
AUD:
Australian dollar speculative positions were reduced
significantly to 193 net speculative long contracts remaining in the market as
the pair tumbled climbed above the .7300 handle. Commercial traders and hedgers
flipped their positions to net long with 2,487 net longs as large institutions
most likely expect the pair to head back toward the .7500 handle. Open interest
rose by another 7,381 contracts to 75,581total contracts outstanding.
Sam Shenker
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for Forex
Capital Markets (FXCM). Sam is the author of the Daily and Weekly Technical
Research reports at FXCM. His reports include: Daily Technicals, Weekly Crosses
and the Weekly Chart Pack. Prior to joining FXCM, Sam spent a number of years on
Wall St trading equities, equity derivatives and futures. He also specialized in
research and analysis of high yield bonds, corporate bankruptcies,
restructurings, reorganizations and venture capital.