Thursday’s Options Alerts
Stocks ended modestly higher today as Blue Chips held
strong held throughout the day while tech stocks struggled to close slightly
positive. Oil, gold, defense, and Financial
issues continued to outperformed while biotechs, semiconductors, and
Internet issues showed
weakness. For more information on today’s action, please refer to
the market
recap.
The VIX
(
$VIX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) had
a outside day today, it opened near its high and closed near the lows of the day.
This shift in
intraday sentiment suggests that fear is dropping. Once again today’s action triggered
another CVR
VI sell signal. The VIX is on the verge of breaking below its 18 month low. The VXN
(
$VXN.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) showed similar action as the VIX as it too had a outside day. It
also opened near its high and closed near its lows. This shift in intraday sentiment also
suggests that fear is dropping. The VXN triggered a CVR II sell signal. Even
with the market declining, we are seeing fear declining, there just is no fear
in the markets. Continue to keep a red flag out and use the low volatility to
acquire cheap puts for protection.
Points of Significance:
American Greeting
(
AM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) jumped over
28% on twelve times its average volume. The greeting card maker reported fourth
quarter earnings that were down 24% from a year ago, but still surpassed
estimates by 2 cents. Going forward, the company gave a rosy outlook for 2003.
The shares were trading in a head & shoulders top, but today’s move broke
the pattern. Volatility for the stock is high and could be suitable for covered
call plays.
Adelphia Communciations
(
ADLAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
dropped over 18% on 10 times its average volume. The stock gapped up, rallied,
then later reversed to form a huge outside bar. The company reported better than
expected earnings that sparked a rally early in the day. However investors were
spooked when analysts questioned about a $2.3 billion dollar off balance debt.
On the weekly chart, Adelphia is breaking down from a head and shoulders top.
There is heavy activity in the May 15 puts.
Gold stock were among the strongest
performers today as the commodity once again rose above the $300 level.
Anglogold
(
AU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) gained almost 8% on double its average volume. The shares
gapped up and came out of a one day pullback. AU is also at a new 52 week high.
The is heavy volume in the April 25 calls.
| Volatility Index |
Close | Net Change |
Signals/Direction | % Above/Below 10 Day Moving Average |
Significance |
| VIX | 19.25 | DOWN 0.50 |
CVR VI SELL |
5.45% Below | Not at Extreme |
| VXN | 37.16 | DOWN 0.52 |
CVR VI SELL |
3.98 % Below |
Not at Extreme |
Abnormal Options Volume With Price Movement
—
Abnormal options volume (calls and puts) with stock price movement
| Name | Symbol | Net % Change |
Volume | Avg. Volume |
| American Greetings |
AM | + 28.38 |
3544 | 354 |
| Adelphia Communications |
ADLAC | – 18.09 |
16346 | 1260 |
| Manugistics Group |
MANU | + 12.17 |
6489 | 2281 |
| Genzyme | GENZ | – 11.10 |
8846 | 2374 |
| Anglogold | AU | + 7.91 |
1380 | 340 |
| Express Scripts |
ESRX | + 3.90 |
1380 | 340 |
Stocks With Biggest Spikes in Implied
Volatility — Stocks with biggest increases or decreases in implied
volatility compared to previous day
Spike Up
| Name | Symbol | IV | Previous IV |
High IV |
Low IV |
| TRW Inc. |
TRW | 21.5 | 18.1 | 46.2 | 19.2 |
| MeriStar Hospitality |
MHX | 25 | 21.2 | 60.5 | 24.8 |
| Exxon Mobil |
XOM | 17.2 | 14.6 | 30 | 17.2 |
| Adelphia Communicators |
ADLAC | 76.3 | 65.2 | 86 | 50.6 |
| ON2Micro | OIIM | 88.3 | 76.1 | 75.2 | 57.9 |
| Thermo Electron |
TMO | 36.6 | 32 | 59.2 | 35.8 |
Spike Down
| Name | Symbol | IV | Previous IV |
High IV |
Low IV |
| Charter One Financial |
CF | 19.1 | 24.7 | 36.4 | 18.1 |
| Duke Weeks Realty |
DRE | 15.4 | 19.2 |
Please use stops on every trade.