To The Point
I believe
there is a good chance the market has really
bottomed. Please keep in mind, I have not used those words since last
year’s top. I do not say this lightly and I don’t usually make big market calls.
January’s move did not fake me out. This time feels different.
My view is based on several facts.
1) A follow-through day occurred on April 10. In my April 11 report, I stated
that I expected an intermediate term rally lead by TECHNOLOGY because of it.
That was one of my most unsure calls I have ever made.
2) My sentiment indicators were green light city throughout March. The VIX,
VXN, Arms, Put/Calls and Front Cover Indicators
all hit extreme bearish numbers.
3) The Fed. The Fed. The Fed. Big Al is now targeting stock prices and a
growing economy in a way that I have never seen.
4) Wednesday’s powerful, high-volume, stupendous rally. This just gives further
confirmation to a rally.
5) The ability of the market to shrug off all kinds of bad news.
I expect a lot of whipsaw action based on the fact of how deep the bear market
has been. I think it is a technical gimme that the market will
pause/consolidate/pullback in the near-term. Weakness should now be bought. In
other words, instead of selling or shorting rallies, buy the pullbacks.
I, as most of you, have never experienced such destruction as what we have seen
in the Nasdaq over the past year. Like you, I too, am learning on the job. It is
very tough to buy breakouts right now because 99% of this latest move was stocks
that were down zillions of percent rallying back up large numbers. I am not sure
how its going to look coming out of this nor can I absolutely guarantee the end
of the bear market. Odds favor more upside and I promise to keep reevaluating as
it goes. After I go through the markets on the weekend, I will post up some nice-looking
individual names.
I really enjoyed the message boards but am now going to fix my carpal tunnel.
Thanks for everyone’s support and kind words.
Have a great weekend.