Today’s Action Important, Technically

Futures are slightly better at the moment as the April PPI numbers were
a non-event. Headline PPI came in at -0.2%, less than the expected +0.5%, but
the Core PPI (ex food, energy) was right on the nose at +0.1%. Today’s action
will be important from a technical standpoint. We have had our significant spike
bottom Wednesday, a retracement yesterday, and if this market is any good for
the near term, it should start to attract buyers today. Should the market take a
significant hit today, Wednesday’s action might all be for naught.

The Mideast tinderbox is a further wild card, as Israeli troops mass at the Gaza
border. June crude futures are up $.24 at the moment, and the dollar is lower vs.
the major currencies. In Europe, the FTSE was unchanged at 5198, while the DAX
was down 0.7% to 4935. In Asia, the Nikkei was down 0.9% at 11,531, and the Hang
Seng dropped 0.5% to 11,646.

In corporate news, WorldCom
(
WCOM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
had its debt rating reduced and has
suffered several downgrades (thanks for help, boys, it’s trading below $2.00).
Boeing
(
BA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
is the subject of a Business Week article saying that the
company may have exploited accounting rules to conceal production problems in
1997. This could be proxy buy-write material again if the stock takes a
hit
. IBM is reportedly set lay off another 8000 employees.

Volatility

Volatility popped back yesterday, with the VIX gaining 1.07 to 24.36 and taking
out yesterday’s high (hmm…). The VXN gained 2.27 to 48.08, and the QQV picked
up 1.67 to 41.62.

Trade Updates (5/09/02)

We were active yesterday. Per Wednesday’s midday Alert, we
"calendarized" some of our June put positions by selling May puts
against them:


(
DJX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— We sold the May 100 puts at $1.00 against our long June
100 puts, effectively putting us into the May/June 100 put calendar spread (long
the June 100 puts, short the May 100 puts) at $1.75.


(
SMH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— We sold the May 40 puts at $1.00 against our long June 40
puts, effectively putting us into the May/June 40 put calendar spread (long the
June 40 puts, short the May 100 puts) at $1.75.


(
MER |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— We bought the MER June/July 40 put calendar spread at $.50
(50%).

We also added several new recommendations today (below).

New Actions (New Recommendations)


(
JNJ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Currently we are long the JNJ January 60 puts at $3.30
(50%). Buy the remaining 50% on a rally into the $63.00 area.

(
WMT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
/
(
TGT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Traders long the WMT June 55 puts may sell them (to
close) and buy the TGT June 40 puts (to open). Do this swap for a $1.50 credit
(for example, buy the TGT June 40 puts at $1.00, sell the WMT June 55 puts at
$2.50). To get this done, WMT will have to sell off a bit, or TGT rally a bit.
This trade lets us realize a $2.50 profit on the WMT puts and gives us the TGT
puts for free.

Working Orders (Old Recommendations)


(
CHIR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Sell all CHIR July 50 calls at $1.00 to close.

(
MLNM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Sell all MLNM May 25 calls at $.50 to close.

(
MSFT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Buy the June/July 50 put calendar spread (buy the July 50 puts,
sell the June 50 puts) at $.50 (50%).

Rolls/Adjustments


(
DYN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Holders of the DYN January 15 call/June 20 call proxy
buy-write (long the January 15 calls, short the June 20 calls at $3.20),
buy the June 20 calls (to close) and sell the September 17.5 calls (to open) for
$1.25 credit (to you).

(
HAL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Holders of the HAL July 20 buy-write, work to sell the HAL July
17.5/20 call spread at $1.00. This will "roll" the position into the
July 17.5 buy-write.

Recap of open trades:

Long-term

Reverse Collars

None.

Buy-writes


(
AMR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Long the August 25 buy-write at $22.00 (50%).


(
AOL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Long the July 22.5 buy-write at
$19.40 (50%).

AOL — Long the October 20 buy-write at $16.30
(25%).


(
HAL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Long the July 20 buy-write at $15.00
(50%).

HAL — Long the July 17.5 buy-write at $14.50
(50%).


(
SEBL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Long the August 27.5 buy-write at
$23.00 (50%).

Proxy buy-writes


(
DYN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Long the January 15/June 20 proxy buy-write at $3.20 (50%).

Complex Strategies

None.

Directional Positions


(
JNJ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Long the January 60 puts at $3.30
(50%).

Short-term

Call Positions


(
APC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Long the May 55 calls at $3.65 (100%).


(
CHIR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Long the July 50 calls at $3.30
(50%).


(
CPN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Long the May 15 calls at $.40 (50%).


(
MLNM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Long the May 25 calls at $2.40
(50%).

Call Spread Positions

None.

Put Positions


(
WMT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Long the June 55 puts at $1.00 credit, due to roll on 5/6/02
(37.5%).

Spread Positions


(
BAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Long the August/May 65 put calendar at $1.50 (50%).


(
DJX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Long the May/June100 put calendar at
an effective price of $2.75 ("roll" on 5/9/02).


(
SMH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Long the May/June 40 put calendar at
an effective price of 2.75 ("roll" on 5/9/02).

Stops

None.

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  • Options trading involves substantial risk and
    is not suitable for all Investors.
  • Also note that spread strategies involve
    multiple commissions and are not risk-free. Most spreads must be done in a
    margin account.

  • Because of the importance of tax
    considerations to all options transactions, the investor considering options
    should consult with a tax advisor as to how taxes may affect the outcome of
    contemplated options transactions.

  • Supporting documentation for claims,
    comparisons, recommendations, statistics or other technical data will be
    furnished upon request. One or more of the contributors to these
    commentaries may have a position in one or more of the securities mentioned.

  • It is important to note that the options
    strategies discussed herein are not suitable to all investors. Options are
    complex investment tools and involve substantial risk. Moreover spreading
    strategies do not eliminate risk and involve multiple commissions.

  • Note: All individuals must have read the ODD
    carefully before trading options. To obtain the document, click on the OCC
    link: https://www.theocc.com/publications/risks/riskchap1.jsp