Today’s Trading Lesson From TradingMarkets
Editor’s Note:
Each night we feature a different lesson from
TM University. I hope you enjoy and profit from these.
E-mail me if you have
any questions.
Bric
Using Moving Averages And Patterns To Enter Into Fast Moves
By Dan Chesler
The main focus of my work involves the use of
short- to intermediate-term technical strategies in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
and futures markets. In the following lesson I will show you how I translate the
basic principle of trend into a simple moving average and bar pattern
combination, which I call the Incipient Trend Pattern
(or ITP). I use this technique for the purposes of early trend identification,
and to help establish favorable trade location.
The accepted definition of a trend is a series of higher peaks and higher
troughs in price. On a bar chart, this normally takes on the appearance of a
series of either ascending or descending zigzags or waves. In a non-trending
market, price peaks and price troughs are more evenly distributed across the
horizontal axis. However, despite this uncomplicated description, the task of
sorting out and identifying trends can still be problematic. Confusion usually
arises over the “degree” of trend one is attempting to isolate. What is needed
is a method to help qualify trend in a consistent manner.
All moving averages lag behind price. Therefore once a stock’s price has crossed
and closed above or below its average, it is presumed the stock has already
gathered directional momentum, and has entered the “incipient trend” stage.
Thus, ITP begins with a ten-period simple
moving average as a trend qualifier.
Following the first occurrence of a close above or below the average, I begin
watching closely for a pause with specific characteristics. The pause serves to
confirm the incipient trend, as well giving us the parameters for entering and
managing the trade.
For long candidates, a “contra” open-to-close sequence bar, whereby the day’s
close is below the open, initiates the pause. This pattern is reversed for short
candidates. I have found that the best signals occur when the pause contains
only one bar, as just described. However, following the first contra bar, there
may be up to four additional bars (five bars total) that make up the pause. The
open-to-close sequence of these additional bars is not important. None of the
bars may close below the moving average (for buys) or above the moving average
(for shorts). If a bar closes above or below the moving average prior to trade
entry, the setup is abandoned.
The trade is entered
on a buy (sell) stop-limit order at the high (low) of the contra bar. The
protective stop is placed at the lowest low or highest high of the pattern. I
normally exit these trades with either a trailing stop, or through support and
resistance targets.
Examples of this moving average/flag pattern combination can be found in daily
charts of both stocks and commodities. I do not use this technique on intraday
charts due to the noise factor in high frequency data. Another clue to finding
good signals with ITP is to look for signals
that occur early after a trend reversal, i.e., where the moving average has
recently switched from a negative slope to a positive slope (vice versa for
sells).
Like any technical pattern, ITP is not
intended as a means to an end. My goal is always to enter positions as near as
possible to the point in time where I believe the market is ready to begin
moving favorably. Thus ITP represents a
technical “bookmark” which holds my place on the chart while I frame out a
trade.
