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You are here: Home / Contributors / Trading Intraday Extended Volatility Levels

Trading Intraday Extended Volatility Levels

March 18, 2013 by Kevin Haggerty

The two elements of my Trading Service are about “Geometric Market Timing” using the primary tools such as the Square of 9, Fibonacci, and Pi to successfully anticipate and pinpoint high probability reversal or acceleration zones in any market, in addition to “High Probability-Low Stress” day trading strategies and methodology.

Trading extended volatility is one of the major aspects of successful day trading. I use what I call Volatility Bands in my Trading Service which are the 1-day Standard Deviation levels of a stock, index, ETF etc. They are calculated and published daily based on the implied volatility of the asset for that specific day.

Volatility will revert to the mean as prices react from extended levels, and also expand from contracted levels. Prices will revert with various percentages of probability depending on the standard deviation level, and this is why you can select opportunities with a positive mathematical expectation of success.

By definition standard deviation describes the percentage probability of a random event occurring, and in the service that period is calculated for one day. The percentage probabilities for each VB level are: 1.0 68%, 1.28 80%
1.5 88%, 2.0 95%
. I have included a partial snapshot of the VB section from the Trading Service.

I have also included a specific example for TSO from Monday 3/11/13 where the stock made a 55.93 low versus the -2.0 VB at 55.97, and the reversal entry was taken above 56.34. This example just highlights the extended VB level opportunity, because there are many other reasons why specific traders select trades. However, this stock is what I call an Above-The-Line [ATL] SPX 500 stock, and is on the Focus trading list in the service.

On the daily chart you can see that TSO had pulled back to range support and the 20DEMA, so there is significant price symmetry in addition to the extended -2.0 VB. The best ATL stocks etc are those where the 8DEMA>20DEMA>50DEMA and the 50DEMA is >200DEMA [vice versa for BTL stocks indexes etc.]. The degree of ATL and BTL Focus lists obviously vary, but this example highlights the best level for ATL.

Information about Geometric Market Timing is available at www.geometricmarkets.com, in addition to 6 free calculators that Kevin uses to measure price and time symmetry.

Click here to find full details on Kevin’s courses including Trading with the Generals with over 20 hours of professional market strategies. And for a free trial to Kevin’s daily trading service, click here.

Filed Under: Contributors, Day Trading, Recent Tagged With: intraday opportunities, Stocks

About Kevin Haggerty

From 1990 to 1997, Kevin Haggerty served as Senior Vice President for Equity Trading at Fidelity Capital Markets, Boston, a division of Fidelity Investments. He was responsible for all U.S. institutional Listed, OTC and Option trading in addition to all major Exchange Floor Executions. For a free trial to Kevin’s Daily Trading Report, please click here.

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