Trading Range Struggle Continues
A
new potential bottom off of the close by the Naz below 3000?
Quite possibly we will get a decent bounce led by the Dow stocks, but so
far there is not enough technical evidence to think that this is more.
Yes, we would still expect a seasonal rally to begin any time now, but we
will have to let this market prove itself. Continue
to watch the 3000 Naz, the 1300 S&P, and the 9700 Dow levels as critical
support like a hawk. In the absence of
another follow-through day up or two, and with technical evidence showing no
overwhelming dominance in breadth, we’ll stick with our cautious stance of
taking only two trades in either direction.Â
Let’s
look at some numbers from the week. New
Highs vs. New Lows on our RS/EPS lists were
16/18, 15/22, 12/39, 18/5
and 28/10 as new highs lost dominance over new lows this week. For this
to have happened so soon into the rally was disappointing for the bulls. Next
week will be critical. If we can’t get some follow-through days up and more
clear and consistent domincance by new highs on our lists, this rally will be in
real trouble. There were roughly 5 breakouts on the upside with 7 breakdowns on the downside of four-week-plus consolidations on our RS/EPS
lists. However, most importantly, there were no valid breakouts on the upside in
upfuel stocks and no valid downside breakdowns in downfuel stocks on the week. A
truly strong market would give us a handful or more of valid breakouts in upfuel
stocks. The market is still not giving us many trading opportunities, and is,
therefore, still warning us to be cautious.
Our
overall allocation remains quite low. We
are now around 17% long (including open profits) and 15% short for aggressive
accounts using leverage (8% long and 8% short for unleveraged, more
conservative accounts). Last week
our longs rose an average of 9% (and with 16% allocation, this added 1.44% to our overall portfolio), while our shorts declined an average of
9.57% (and with 15% allocation, this added 1.44% to our overall portfolio), giving our overall
portfolio a gain of around 2.88% on the week and leaving us with around a 81.28%
gain on the year (2.12% below 83.4% equity highs) on a 12% maximum drawdown so
far. Conservative investors not using leverage show about half these gains and
drawdowns. Our three steps forward, 2.5
steps back snail-slow gains with
relatively low volatility in our total account continues, but we have managed to
keep our gains and avoid both the bloodshed and volatility many other strategies have
shown here, which is actually even more important
than cleaning up from the big moves up.
For
those not familiar with our long/short strategies, we suggest you review my
10-week trading course on TradingMarkets.com, as well as in my book The Hedge
Fund Edge and course “The Science of Trading.”
Basically, we have rigorous criteria for potential long stocks that we
call “up fuel,” as well as rigorous criteria for potential short
stocks that we call “down fuel.” Each day we review the list of new highs on our “Top RS and EPS New
High list” published on TradingMarkets.com for breakouts of four-week-or-longer
flags, or of valid cup-and-handles of more than four weeks.
Buy trades are taken only on valid breakouts of stocks that also meet our
upfuel criteria. Shorts are similarly
taken only in stocks meeting our downfuel criteria that have valid breakdowns of
four-plus-week flags or cup-and-handles on the downside.
We continue to buy new signals and sell short new short signals until our
portfolio is 100% long and 100% short (less aggressive investors could stop at
50% long and 50% short). In early March,
we took half-profits on nearly all positions and lightened up considerably as a
sea change in the new economy/old economy theme appeared to be upon us.
We’ve been effectively defensive ever since, and continue to be.
Â
Upside
breakouts meeting upfuel criteria (and still open positions) so far this year
are:Â Mid-Atlantic Medical Services
(
MME |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) @16.56 w/15.25 ops; Downey
Financial
(
DSL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) @45.25 w/41 ops; and last week we had no valid pattern breakouts up in
stocks meeting our upfuel criteria (see 10-week trading course). The average gain in these stocks from
breakout points of entry to Wednesday’s close is 73%, substantially
outperforming the NASDAQ, DOW and S&P for the year to date. Continue to
watch our NH list and buy flags or cup-and-handle breakouts in NH’s meeting our
upfuel criteria — but continue to add just two per week.
On
the downside, this year we’ve had breakdowns from flags (one can use a down
cup-and-handle here as well) in stocks meeting our downfuel criteria (and still
open positions) in:Â Barrick
Gold
(
ABX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) @14.44 w/14.44 ops; and Global Crossing
(
GX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) @21.44 w/20
ops; and
this last week, we had no valid pattern breakdowns in stocks meeting our downfuel
criteria (see 10-week trading course). These shorts are down over 70% from breakdown levels on average
so far this year (before current prices or exits). Continue to watch our
NL list daily and to short any stock meeting our downfuel criteria (see 10-week
trading course) breaking down out of a downward flag or down up-and-handle.
Here, too, remain cautious by only adding two shorts in a week.
We
still need to hold critical support. We
may get an upward-biased trading range — and we may get a schizo market with the
Naz in trouble, while the broad market holds up. A rally is likely to develop here, however. But until we get more
long-side opportunities or an upward-biased breadth,
don’t get wildly excited. We still
need for support to hold, another one or more good follow-through days, and a
couple of weeks of abundant breakouts that meet our upfuel criteria to release our
cautious stance toward longs. Remember
to let market action be your guide. Only
when our opportunities grow to become abundant will we be able to get more
excited about moving our long allocation or short allocation up to more
aggressive levels. Let’s stick
religiously with our strategy, and let it tell us how aggressively or defensively
to allocate and to what vehicles on what side of the market, since the strategy
is doing so well in this market environment. Â
 Â