Turmoil in Long Term Symmetry Time Period
The long-term monthly RST signal was triggered in June 2015 following the all time 2135 SPX high in May 2015, and buy and hold index fund investors have made nothing since then which followed my suggestion to significantly reduce equity holdings unless you planned to trade the monthly O/S conditions “if and when”.
The index made the initial o/s double bottom at 1867 then 1872, followed by the Pi time bounce to 2116. That was followed by another double bottom to 1812 and 1810 in Feb 2016, or a -14.4% decline. Yellen took the o/s SPX up again to a 2120 high on 6/8/16 for a +17.2% mark up, and it was a “Don’t worry Hillary, I have your back”.
Next we get a BREXIT decline [Go U.K.] which was good for SPX -3.6% on Fri with a +4.9% move in the GLD, + 5.9% GDX, and +2.7% TLT and they took the US Dollar up +2.6%. Nothing like crowd psychology. The 2037 SPX Fri low puts it back down to the 200 DEMA which went out at 2038.
There is significant long-term symmetry with the Armstrong Economic Confidence Mode as the BREXIT vote to bail out comes 43 years [5 x 8.6] from 1973 when the U.K became part of the European community. Add to that the Clinton/Trump show, and a country divided by Obama who is getting every drop of socialist blood out of the US before he moves down the street after vacating the “House”. It just so happens 2016 is also 240 years from “1776”, or 28 x 8.6, so there is significant Pi symmetry which is not just market movement.
It was obviously an overt trading day on Fri as the SPX opened and made a 2056 low, versus the -3.0 VB at 2067, followed by a reflex to 2073 and that was all she wrote as the index traded steadily down to a 2033 intraday low and closed at 2037.41 In addition to the other Pi symmetry, the 8.6 year Pi date from the 2007.15 bull market high year is 2015.75, which is early Oct 2016.
It is certainly a traders’ market, but the central bankers will pull out all the stops to stabilize and continue the losing game they have been playing for 7-8 years. However, that has inflated equity assets which have no correlation with economic reality, and the BREXIT the con-game “has to continue” as they make up new ways to flat out lie to the masses and play the devastating NIRP experiment which has proven to be one of the great central bank mistakes in our time.
The SPX has been in a 4.4% trading range since March 2016 with the 2121 high and 2025 low, which is where we remain despite the -3.6% decline on Fri. The monthly 5RSI is not o/s like it was in Aug 2015 or Feb 2016, and in fact went out at 50, so until the market becomes o/s or o/b on a monthly basis there is no reason to speculate what the BREXIT means market wise and stay active with the day trading, and avoiding long major longer-term market bets. Leave that up to the empty suits and the babbling lady who heads our central bank.
Happy July 4th