Upside bias until next week
Tuesday’s FOMC event went pretty much
by the script. One pre-news price swing, followed by decent directional action
once the guesswork crew got cleared out of their stops after the fact.
ES (+$50 per index point)
S&P 500 futures didn’t go anywhere on Monday
(chart not shown). If an ES trader worked real hard that day, they might have
scratched out a couple points profit in the end. Nothing wrong with that, but
why work so hard for so little? We knew Tuesday would offer solid profit
opportunity, and indeed it did.
After an early exchange of shorts & longs
reversed near 1310 magnet, a long signal off the pivot finally worked for up to
+5pts at session highs near R2 resistance. Shorting that on a blind attempt
would have worked, especially since the ER and ES both topped at R2 values
together. When that type of dual hit happens, it usually marks a price turn.
As the FOMC news broke, hapless bulls who gamed
an end to interest rate hikes trampled each other in stopping out. Sell signals
confirmed at 1312.50 and again at 1304.50 offered solid profit potential inside
a normal day’s range of 15pts overall.
For those who play the “give me +2pts per day
and I’m done” approach, one session like yesterday (and last Tuesday, and
umpteen days each month forever) offers more than a week’s worth of yield in one
single session. Rather than beat ones brains in trying to trade the 5pt
micro-range mush, waiting for the normal to large-range sessions that happen all
the time offers a lot more potential for a lot less effort. Yesterday was one of
those, and certainly not the last.
ER
(+$100 per index point)
Russell 2000 futures were even better, as usual.
Longs off the pivot were available, short from R2 before the news and/or
confirmed sell signals 761+ and then 758 ~ 757 dual triggers offered well over
+10pts potential intraday. That’s a decent week of gains, contained within one
normal range session.
ES (+$50 per index point)
S&Ps are testing light support levels inside
the recent lo-hi swing grid. 1295 zone of 62% and the 50dma are likely to be hit
now that price action is so close… probable to be visited today. Expect a big
reactionary bounce off that dual confluence of key support if/when hit.
ER
(+$100 per index point)
Small caps are the buyer’s favorites, of
course. Still well above all meaningful support magnets and likely to be propped
into the end of this week – month – quarter. Upside or sideways has the nod
until next week, barring any unknown catalysts outside the market as of now.
Summation
FOMC is cleared, some economic reports left at week’s end, and the usual window
dressing antics are expected. Unless something thwarts their efforts, expect big
funds with performance sheets to protect keeping markets propped thru the
closing bell on Friday. Next two sessions should offer solid trading
opportunity, with slight upside bias along the way. As always, we trade the
clear method signals and enjoy the law of large numbers actuarial favoritism
provided by performing trade methods. Everything else is a distant second to
trusting your clear method signals.
Trade what you see, ignore what you believe and
optimal performance will result!
Trade To Win
Austin P
(Online video clip
tutorials…
open access)
Austin Passamonte is a full-time
professional trader who specializes in E-mini stock index futures, equity
options and commodity markets.
Mr. Passamonte’s trading approach uses proprietary chart patterns found on an
intraday basis. Austin trades privately in the Finger Lakes region of New York.