U.S. Dollar sent lower on TICS data
For moment, let’s pretend that there was no TIC data release this morning…
In that way we’ll look at the U.S. Dollar in terms of strictly price, support and resistance. There’s no argument that the dollar was stronger intraday across the 15, 30, and 60 minute charts. With the 3:00am EST UK open the dollar rallied to the strong side of the Wave.
Looking at the 180 or 240 minute charts, the dollar was neutral at best as prices had begun to trade within a range (see 180 minute dollar chart below)
So why is it that dollar bulls keep getting ahead of themselves? There is support t 78.00 and prices are also likely to attract buyers around 78.20. But overall these bounces simply have been sent down sharper with each correction. In fact take a look at the 30 minute chart and the ceiling at 78.330 – 78.36. Even if prices had enough buying support to continue up through this area, the 78.50 major psychological number was waiting.
The TICS data did show that foreign investors pulled out of U.S Dollars, bonds, stocks in a big way. The TICS data release showed that net foreign long-term securities purchases came in at minus 69.3 billion.
So I am not saying that this alone would lead to trader to know that the TIC would be a huge downside miss…but trading up to resistance should already have us considering the potential hurdle prices would have to overcome to head higher.
The better set ups are made by taking advantage of the dollar bounces to enter on corrections in the dollar correlated majors. For some video commentary on both the U.S. Dollar and the crudeoil market, click here.
Raghee Horner is a private forex, futures, and stock trader based in South Florida. She is the author of two best-selling forex trading books and a sought after speaker. All charts we used with permission from Autochartist and EZ2Trade Software. For a 21-day trial of Autochartist chart pattern recognition and scanning software, visit www.autochartist.com.