Watch the GDP Report
Wednesday rolled out with a narrow range light volume down day across the broader markets. A lot of yawning today! Digestive days are harsh and require a lot of sitting. Wasn’t a bad day once we found a few gems, just took things forever to move. However, for a week leading into the biggest US holiday we are actually seeing decent volatility. Thursday and Friday have economic data so that should provide some opportunity as we close the week out for a three day weekend.
Crude inventories fell fueling oil, but only closed with 14 cent gain at $63.60 on the day. After being up to $64.15 after the data release. This is the fourth week of falling crude supply. Gold fell $1.10 on the day to end at $624.30. Three down days and one up (yesterday up 7.50) to resume selling again today. Some jitters in that market starting to show up with the dollar fluctuating.
Going into Thursday we have pre market economic data and a well rested market. Wednesday’s digestive action let the market stay in range and not change a lot from last night. The SOX (semiconductors) held the 50dma and showed some nice upside. But it is still sitting just over that support and has work cut out for it to stay above. The light volume doesn’t hurt the bulls on any pullbacks, so the sentiment has not altered from buying the dips.
The VIX and VXN came off the lows on the 15th and saw a nice move into Tuesday, again today with the low volatility it started back down. A complacent market into Christmas would not be out of the question and one that stays in range also would not be a big surprise. We are close to the bottom of the range and to test these swing lows would be healthy correction. The GDP will set the pre market tone and the opening could stay on edge as 10:00 data nears and then we have more at noon. So the day could find a lot of range then move kind of action. I don’t really have a bias going into the day, indicators are so neutral we are going to be dependent on the data to move us around. We have room both directions before we come out of the range so the only bias I have is to remain in range and stay pretty neutral into the weekend.
Economic data for the week of December 18th—22nd
Thursday 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final, 08:30 GDP-Final, 08:30 Initial Claims, 10:00 Leading Indicators, 12:00 Philadelphia Fed, Friday 08:30 Durable Orders, 08:30 Personal Income, 08:30 Personal Spending, 10:00 Mich Sentiment Rev.
Some earnings due out this week: Thursday pre market — AGE, AM, CCL, GIS, SMSC and after the bell MU, RIMM, SHFL, TIBX. Friday nothing of interest.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday’s pivot is 1436.50, the weekly is 1433.50. Intra day Support: 1434.75, 1432.50, 1431.75,1428.25, 1426.50. Resistance: 1440.50, 1442.50, 1444, 1445.50. 60 minute chart is below.
ER (Russell 2000 e-mini) Thursday’s pivot is 792.70, the weekly is 799.10. Intra day Support: 790.20, 788.50, 786.80, 784.30, 782.80, and 781.10. Resistance: 794.30, 796, 797.20, 799.50, 801.60. 60 minute chart is below
Teresa Appleton has traded equities and options for
nine years and futures for seven. She is founder and CEO of TradeLogic, LLC. For
more information about Teresa and the training she offers stock, options and
futures traders,
click here.