Watch the Leading Names
Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor
with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary
is the author of
The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is
also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show “Investors Edge” on over
50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s
Trendwatch”…a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the
institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary’s Daily Market
Alerts
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or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.
John Edwards said that he would raise taxes on
anyone making $200,000 to pay for expanded healthcare coverage under a plan
costing $90 billion to $120 billion a year. This from a man who says we have 2
Americas. Yes…there is one America where you can live in a 28,000 square foot
house and the other America where people worked their butts off all their life
just to hear you want to confiscate more of THEIR hard earned money. Watching
those squinty eyes John.
“The other day the oil companies reported the
highest profits in the history of the world. I want to take those profits and I
want to put them into a strategic energy fund that will begin to fund
alternative, smart energy and technology that will begin to actually move us
toward the direction of independence.” No…this was not Hugo Chavez talking.
This was Hillary Clinton showing her true stripes. Of course, to a different
crowd, she says something else. The only thing consistent about this candidate
is the inconsistency.
I was and still am willing to give a Democrat my
vote for President…if I can find one who believes in our great free market
system as well as one who believes you reward success and hard work…not punish
it.
Gotta take shots at both sides so everyone can
hate me!
$13 billion lost. Yes, the Bush administration
oversaw delivery of $13 billion in cash to Iraq…that is now lost. When one of
Paul Bremer’s financial advisor’s, David Oliver, was asked as where he thought
the money went to, this moron stated: ” I have no idea. I can’t tell you whether
or not the money went to the right things or did not…nor do I actually think
it was important.” Yes, these are the people in charge of the war effort. And
they wonder why their poll numbers are south of Mussolini. I never thought I
would ever say this but I am actually grateful that Henry Waxman is
investigating this nonsense. This administration was and is lax on all-important
oversight.
Market time: We play recent action by the book:
The market experienced its 3rd distribution day
in the past 3 weeks on Friday. The lagging NASDAQ and specifically the NDX were
hit hard. Many leading stocks continue to get hit. It is never thrilling when a
leader like MA gaps up $5 and finishes down $11. It is never thrilling to see
LVS, WYNN, AAPL, GOOG going by the wayside. Since one of my main themes is to
watch the leading names…then seeing leading names blasted could be meaningful.
In fact, in the past, it has marked near-term tops every time this occurred.
To confirm a near-term top, I would have to see
support levels taken out…specifically the NDX showing a very ugly head and
shoulders pattern with a break below 1760…a classic pattern. The NASDAQ is
stronger than the NDX with support at 50 day avg and then 2418. Will also be
watching the DOW and S&Ps 50 day avg. The reason that will be important is
because you have to go back to July 25 to when the DOW and S&P were below the 50
day. When a major index is above the line for a long time, it is that much more
important when it breaks the line. Now…guess what….none of these support
levels have been broken yet…but I am preparing for it if it occurs…and if
there is anything we do know, a good correction is way overdue.
At the very least, extended stocks are going to
be pulled in.. On top of that, there is a clear lack of bases to buy off of.
There are still a ton of stocks above the 50 day…which means they are still in
good technical shape…but my list of bad charts has skyrocketed in the past
couple of days . To add one more word of caution to all this, the bond
market’s recent anemic bounce looks to have stalled. A break below recent lows
will turn me longer-term bearish on bonds…which means higher rates…which
means potential headwinds for Mr. Market. Stay tuned kids. Things may start to
get very interesting.
Gary Kaltbaum