Watch These Tech Names
charts in
my last report to make a point. Even though I have been writing
about a lagging Nasdaq, a lagging SEMICONDUCTOR group and fewer and fewer stocks
participating, there are still enough places to go on the long side. I just
think it important right now to go slower until volume patterns change. I am a
big believer that the MARKET is the controlling force. Three out of 4 stocks go
down in a bear phase…and I don’t want to play those odds.
The MARKET is in
no way in a bear phase…just some areas.
I have said this many times before. A picture is
worth…a few words.While the DOW and S&P 500 hardly budge, the Nasdaq
has been showing distribution for the better part of 5-6 weeks. A break below
1991 would make things even more negative near-term. This would more than
likely coincide with a break below 491 on the SOX.
These areas must be watched
as 4 letter stocks do not play nice-nice when they enter a bear phase. I
gather INTEL’s mid-quarter update could tell a tale…but so far, most
supposed good news in TECHLAND has been old off recently.
As I said earlier, the NYSE-types are in fine
shape. HOMEBUILDERS, FINANCIALS, UTILITIES, FOOD, BEVERAGES, RESTAURANTS,
misc. RETAIL and OIL SERVICES amongst others continue to lead…yes
defensive…but still leading
.
^next^
As you can see, there are things working. I just
think it is important to also watch names like KLAC, DELL, MXIM, VRTS, ALTR,
CSCO and all the other TECH that is rolling over at the same time. Continue
to underweight these TECH areas until we see better action.
Lastly, something I don’t usually talk about is
Japan. The NIKKEI is poised to break out of another base here. You can decide
how you want to play it…either individual names or JEQ or EWJ.
Gary Kaltbaum