Weak Results From Baidu.com and Analog Devices Already Priced In
This week, investors will continue to focus on the economic stimulus package and financial bailout plan, keeping earnings reports on the back of their minds. Aside from a few earnings reports of interest, the government will release the latest figures on inflation at the consumer and wholesale level. Inflation has been less of a concern as the price of oil, food, cars and clothes all sink. In fact, some economists are talking more about deflation and predict that the consumer price index will go negative this year.
A few key earnings reports will likely move the markets this week including Wal-Mart Stores
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PowerRating) and Hewlett-Packard
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PowerRating). Both companies should give investors an idea of how much or little consumers are spending. Aside from those major players, a number of other companies will release quarterly results.
Baidu.com
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PowerRating) is expected to release fourth-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, and analysts expect China’s most popular search engine to report earnings of $1.34 per share, up 54 percent from a year ago, on revenue of $132.5 million. In December, Baidu.com lowered its fourth-quarter revenue guidance after it suspended thousands of merchants from its paid-search service that were selling medical products without licenses on file.
If investors want to trade into earnings, they should know that Baidu has a tendency to narrow or reverse its next-day share move following its post-earnings share performance in the preceding evening session. It’s done so eight times and widened five in the quarters we’ve tracked. Near term, the stock is trending toward widening, doing so in three of the last four quarters. On October 22, the stock fell 2.8% in after-hours trading after earnings beat and revenue met estimates. The stock widened its loss the following trading session, ending down 14.7%. Shorts may want to find a top if the stock starts to sink in the after-hours.
Analog Devices
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PowerRating) is due to report first quarter results after the bell Thursday as well. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect the company to post a profit of $0.16 per share, down 58 percent from a year ago, on revenue of $475.9 million. The semiconductor company recently lowered its outlook for its fiscal first quarter due to weak demand in the weak economy, which is already priced into the stock going into earnings.
If traders are interested in playing this one, Analog Devices shows a relatively consistent tendency to widen its next-day move after an after-hours earnings release; doing so in 12 of the last 15 events we’ve tracked. Near term, the stock has widened in three of the last four quarters. On November 11, ADI fell 2.6% in after-hours trading after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance. The stock widened its loss the following session, ending down 6.7%.
Cassie Slane is a Senior Editor at www.MidnightTrader.com.