What Does Larry Ellison Know About ORCL?


I must repeat a passage from


my last report
for
you:

“Do you remember when
I told you that the dollar looked like, technically, it was
bottoming? A couple of days later, a reporter for the Wall Street
Journal wrote an article entitled, “HOW TO PLAY THE FALLING
DOLLAR.” Of course, the article was written AFTER the long slide the
dollar had. Ever since, the dollar has rolled to the upside.

Do you remember when I was telling you that
TECH was looking toppy? At the same time, there were 2 front covers of
magazines heralding TECH as a great investment. One cover was entitled”
TECH IS BACK-HOW TO TAKE ADVANTAGE.” The other was “10 TECH STOCKS TO
OWN.”

I point this out for 2 simple reasons:

 

First, OIL PRICES have skyrocketed. I am now
reading “SEVEN OIL STOCKS TO BUY NOW.” The first line states…”Oil prices
are up. How do you capitalize on that fact?” Ladies and gentlemen, take a
lesson from the first two examples. You don’t buy a certain sector after
it is already way up and people are talking about it. I  have only seen a
slight pullback in OIL STOCKS…so far. BUT with this latest article, I
would be willing to wager we are close to the top.

That leads me into the front cover of
Barrons
. It has a BULL throwing a BEAR off of a boat. It is
entitled…”BEAR OVERBOARD.” I have only one thing to say…be afraid…be
very afraid! I hope you got the hint.”

The main reason for bringing this up again
is because on cue, I BELIEVE OILS MAY BE TOPPING OUT. Let’s take a look at
the
(
OIH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
. Notice the wide and loose pattern recently. This morning , the
OIH failed at the important 50-day average and looks headed for a test of 
near-term support at $66.56. I
WOULD BE VERY CAREFUL ABOUT BUYING OIL
STOCKS HERE
. Everyone loves them, everyone is talking about them and of
course, now that OIL is nearing $40…it has to go higher. I am betting
the other way.

I will talk about the market in my regular
Thursday report tomorrow. Today, I wanted to talk about some insider
action YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT…especially if you own
Oracle

(
ORCL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
.

^Next^

You may or may not remember that back in
2002, I wrote a report where I found over 85 TECHNOLOGY companies that had
dropped 50% from their highs. Amazingly, AFTER that drop, those 85
companies continued to have massive insider selling. These are the people
that know their companies, run their companies and base their buying and
selling decisions, just like you and me, ON FEAR AND GREED. If we think
our stock is going up, we hold or buy more. If we think our stock is going
down, we sell. When looking at insiders, I have studied that when a stock
has already been blasted, that’s the time where insiders buy their
stock…finding value at some point. Not only were insiders not buying,
they were selling en masse. Six months later, 99% of those stocks were
down and by at least an average of another 50%.

Fast forward to today. ORACLE has been a
major laggard during the recent bull move in TECHNOLOGY…and by a woeful
margin.


That leaves
me with one question: WHY DID LARRY ELLISON SELL 33 MILLION SHARES OF
STOCK IN THE LAST MONTH OR SO?
We are talking about $350 million in stock.
This is happening at its lows. Obviously, Mr. Ellison is finding no value
in his own stock at this price. We will review what the stock does in the
future.

Gary Kaltbaum