What Kind Of Goals Are You Setting?
Stock index futures opened the “new season” with upside
gaps, motivated by another sharp dip in crude oil and relief that the
Republican Convention passed without incident. The futures showed good relative
strength by reversing back up after filling less than 1/2 of the gap, but a
lunchtime double-top was met by good selling that put an end to the day’s
uptrend.
The
September SP 500 futures closed out Wednesday’s session with a gain of +7.75
points, while the Dow futures tacked on +71 points. Looking at the daily chart,
the ES left Friday’s gravestone unconfirmed, but is forming bearish divergence
as it tests weekly resistance. A close below the 10-day MA at 1108 would be
needed to dull the horns on the bulls. The YM broke through its 78.6% Fib
retracement resistance, but is also nosing into weekly resistance.
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September
bonds (ZB) posted an inside day due to short-covering, and left Friday’s key
reversal down unconfirmed. The Semiconductor Index (SOX) continues to be a
laggard and posted another new 52-week low before paring its losses in the last
30 minutes.
The Fed’s
Beige Book will be released on Wednesday afternoon, but that will be
overshadowed by Fed Chair Greenspan’s testimony to the House Budget Committee on
the state of the economy and the deficit. Greenspan is expected to reiterate
his contention that the economy is on solid ground, and with the election
looming, the exchange between him and the Congressmen probably will be less than
friendly. Aside from any Greenspeak surprises, I’ll be looking for a pause/retracement
here ahead of the rollover to December as the front month.
^next^
What
Kind of Goals Are You Setting?
I feel that
goal setting is important to trading psychology and performance. So, those of
you who set goals and use them, how do you make them relevant to your trading?
I have
found that my favorite method of goal setting is a stairstep: a large number of
small, EASY goals that give me quick feedback. I break the big picture into
little bites. I no longer set what I call destination goals. I don’t say “I’ll
get to this particular place by x date.â€Â I found that to be much too painful at
the most unexpected times.
I do have what I call
process goals. My process goals are to stay in the game and keep getting better.
I liken that to Cycling,
which is one of my hobbies. When I started Cycling, I was pretty bad and since I
knew I was very bad, I made no attempt to compare myself to others and I also
didn’t try to get anywhere in particular. I only tried to continue Cycling
without getting hurt and keep increasing my distance when possible. This
approach eventually has led me to some decent personal records that most people
haven’t reached (They are very modest records. I am not Lance Armstrong and
never will be).
I used to have financial
goals but since I stopped that several years ago I have been at least as
successful if not more so than ever before financially. My only goal is to have
a good time with work and play (is there a difference?). I do that very
well, so I am achieving my goals every day.
When I started trading, I
started with the vision that I have everyday that I will be trading for the next
50 years/.
My goal
remains to work my plan and continue to improve in trading just like I did/do in
Cycling. In Cycling, I sometimes stand still and sometimes go backwards, and so
it is in trading, but it all adds up to more cumulative experience, so I am
meeting my process goals.
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Program Trading Levels
Fair Value – 0.01Â Â Â Â
Buy Program Premium – 0.77
Sell Program Discount – (0.77)
Closing Premium – 0.90
Closing Bias – If the futures gap down at the
open, watch for a retracement up towards the gap fill.
Please feel free to email me with any questions
you might have, and have a great trading week!
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