What Would Surprise You The Most?
Folks, at this point if I wanted to be Marderesque, I would just stick my
chart here and leave the rest of this “Chart of the Day” completely blank.Â
Then you would ask yourself, “What’s Kwong trying to say? What is this
supposed to be — modern art or something? Or did he accidentally delete all his
text…and was too lazy to rewrite it?”
Then as you stare at my blank page (except for the chart) you start saying to
yourself:
“Okay — obviously Kwong had something to say here. Let’s see, last
Friday he showed us these charts
of the Nasdaq and SOX. The trendlines he drew seemed to be right
where the market has paused over the past week. Pure coincidence I’m
sure.
“Now, he’s showing me this chart of the Nasdaq with even more of these
crazy lines of his.”
“Looks like he’s got a major downtrending channel from
the March 2000 highs to the recent lows. I must admit, those parallel lines
fit so well that it looks like somebody is orchestrating the whole thing. I
sure wish he could have drawn those lines a year ago!
“And then there’s the smaller channel coming down at a
steeper angle inside the larger channel.
“Hmm. I wonder if he was thinking that we’re at an
important juncture right now because the price action from the recent lows has
brought us back up to the top of the smaller channel, the 38.2% Fib
retracement (on the downward swing from January 2001), and potential
resistance off the 1999 lows.
“But see, what bothers me is that Kwong is always saying
we’re at a crucial juncture! That aside…I don’t know what I’m supposed to
conclude from all of this.Â
“Wait…there’s that title of his.”
“What Would Surprise You The Most?”
“Well, from what I can see everybody is jumping on the
bullish bandwagon. I have to admit that I’d be pretty surprised if the market
just plunged to new lows from here. Is Kwong predicting more big moves to the downside
like Goran? No, can’t be. Kwong also says he hates to predict things. Gotta
keep an open mind and not become emotionally attached to any particular
outcome. That’s his mantra.
“But wait a sec. You know what would surprise me even
more? If the market did neither what the extreme bulls and the extremes bears
think and then just oscillated in a trading range for the next five years. Now
that would be surprising!!!
“Well I’m getting a headache thinking about this.
Everybody’ll probably have a different idea of what surprises them the
most.
I think I’ll wait for Goran’s piece now. Don’t know when
it’ll get here. But I’m sure he’ll have an opinion.”
Have a great weekend!