What’s Up, What’s Down: Dollar Index Jumped, Crude Lower

Comments for Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Looking Ahead to Tuesday by Reflecting Back on Monday’s Action


Higher closes yesterday for the Japanese Yen and dollar index while lower to sharply lower for the British pound, Canadian dollar, Aussie dollar, Euro Fx and Swiss franc. The euro has given me a sell signal while the franc continues to be toppy. The yen also closed lower but looks to move lower overall at this time while in a bear pennant or possibly a triangle. The yen closed higher but is in a bear triangle at this time and should to work lower overall but has continued to hold its last and most important support area so far making it difficult to take any new position in this area.

The Canadian dollar settled sharply lower again but this time giving me a sell signal. Although the pound and Aussie dollar both settled lower again they both still the look the most bullish of the currencies. The dollar closed higher again getting closer to a buy signal as its forming a potential bottom. I am maintaining Buy  Signals for the Swiss franc, Aussie dollar and Pound; but have turned bearish on the Euro and Yen. Please feel free to contact me for details.

Euro Chart

Canadian Chart


Higher closes Monday for the eurodollar, bonds and notes again but no real changes technically. The eurodollar, basis the September contract, is still in a long term uptrend and still has a good chance of testing its with today’s closes. The next important point is 9931.5.The bonds and notes both followed through from Thursday’s reversal type action once again to settle higher and could rally up to the 11520 area basis the September contract.

T-bond Chart


Higher closes on the 15th for the rbob and natural gas while lower closes for crude and heating oil. All of the energies continue to look higher overall with natural gas now close to a buy signal after today’s sharply higher close. I am holding Buy Signals for Crude, Heating Oil and the rbob. I can be called or email for details.

Natural Gas Chart


Lower to sharply lower closes again for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, corn, oats and rough rice. All of the wheat are still in uptrends especially Minneapolis but have been hurt by recent action and are in important support areas to hold while forming possible tops. Minneapolis has support around 720, KC around 640 while Chicago wheat is still in a support at this time. Corn settled sharply lower causing a failed bull triangle now at the lower end of a very important support area. My buy signal is still in tact but barely. Rough rice settled slightly lower still unable to close over 13000 which is in a good resistance area. Its short term trend is still higher and I’m close to a buy signal but there’s a lot of resistance to get through. Now rice may fall back to the 125 area basis the July contract. Oats also closed lower and, while still in an uptrend, is forming a potential topping formation. Beans and meal closed lower now in bull flags but the oil settled sharply lower close to giving me a sell signal.

Oat Futures Chart

See the balance of my morning comments, including the Metals, Softs, Energies and Grains, at my website. For my complete coverage, visit my commentary page at www.markethead.com.

Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (www.zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. If you would like a free booklet explaining the charts mentioned above, email Rick at ralexander@zaner.com.