What’s Up, What’s Down: Crude Futures Climbing Back

Comments for Thursday, July 9, 2009

Looking Ahead to Thursday by Reflecting Back on Wednesday’s Price Action


For the fourth trading session in a row higher for the Japanese yen and dollar index while lower for the Aussie dollar, Euro Fx, Swiss franc, British pound and Canadian dollar. The euro has been losing some steam making its lowest low and close in two weeks but still is in an uptrend overall The franc is still in a good resistance area hanging on to my sell signal while the yen settled sharply higher makings its highest high and close since last February.

On the other hand the Canadian dollar made its lowest low and close since May 5th again continuing to hold a support area around 8600 but still in a downtrend overall. The pound and Aussie dollar settled lower again with the former making its lowest close in a month coming close to a sell signal while the latter did have a sell signal finally closing below 7800 basis the September contract. The dollar had another higher close still holding the 8000 area basis the September contract but is still in a long term downtrend while basing since the beginning of June. Buy Signal for the Yen; Sell Signals for the Swiss, Canadian and Aussie dollar.

Aussie dollar Chart


Higher closes yesterday for  natural gas, crude and heating oil along with the rbob again. Crude, heat and the rbob made new recent lows and closes with heat and the rbob down for the 6th trading session in a row, natural gas for seven and crude for five. Also natural gas made a new contract close.


Higher closes Wednesday for Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with rough rice while lower for oats but lower to sharply lower for corn, soybeans, soymeal, soyoil and Minneapolis wheat. All of the wheat continues to look very weak along with corn made another new contract low and close. Rough rice settled higher this time in a narrow range for this grain. Long term its trend has been down but has been consolidating (basing) since the beginning of February. Oats had its lowest close since April 28th. The 220 area basis the December contract has become a critical area to hold followed by 200. The bean complex closed lower with old crop beans down sharply. Beans, meal and oil all made new recent lows and closes but look oversold at this time. I am holding Sell Signals for the entire grain complex.

soymeal Chart

See the balance of my morning comments, including the Metals, Softs, Energies and Grains, at my website. For my complete coverage, visit my commentary page at www.markethead.com.

Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (www.zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. If you would like a free booklet explaining the charts mentioned above, email Rick at ralexander@zaner.com.